What it would take for Nirav Sheth.
Jayapal starts 71.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 7,503 net votes toward Sheth, a 2.1-point gain. Winning outright would take a 69.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Sheth the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 69.2-point national wave.
176,387 votes.
That is half of the 352,773 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Sheth stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 7,329 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jayapal today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Sheth needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Jayapal.
Who. Few precincts give Sheth's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 7,503 net votes against a gap of 251,737. Still 244,234 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 69.2 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 5% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+45Seattle Precinct 43-1992 (King County)persuadeStarting line Jayapal +16. 16.5% split their ticket.
- 02+40Seattle Precinct 46-2266 (King County)persuadeStarting line Jayapal +30. 20.5% split their ticket.
- 03+30Seattle Precinct 43-1819 (King County)persuadeStarting line Jayapal +54. 16.2% split their ticket.
- 04+29Seattle Precinct 46-1959 (King County)persuadeStarting line Jayapal +55. 10.2% split their ticket.
- 05+28Burien Precinct 33-1057 (King County)persuadeStarting line Jayapal +41. 9.7% split their ticket.
- 06+28Seattle Precinct 46-2247 (King County)persuadeStarting line Jayapal +70. 10.8% split their ticket.
- 07+27Shoreline Precinct 32-0514 (King County)persuadeStarting line Jayapal +23. 13.0% split their ticket.
- 08+27Seattle Precinct 43-1980 (King County)persuadeStarting line Jayapal +39. 17.2% split their ticket.
- 09+26Normandy Park Precinct 33-0857 (King County)persuadeStarting line Jayapal +24. 8.7% split their ticket.
- 10+25Seattle Precinct 46-1957 (King County)persuadeStarting line Jayapal +39. 11.6% split their ticket.
- 11+25Seattle Precinct 36-1673 (King County)persuadeStarting line Jayapal +58. 8.0% split their ticket.
- 12+25Seattle Precinct 43-2057 (King County)persuadeStarting line Jayapal +60. 13.8% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Seattle Precinct 43-1992 (King County) carries the most.
Seattle Precinct 43-1992 (King County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 45. It sits at Jayapal +16 on our starting line, and 16.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 7,503 net votes. The gap is 251,737. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.1 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Sheth's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 1,075
- Slope
- 1.048
- R²
- 0.857
- Residual SD
- 5.5 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 137
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Sheth's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 16.
- Now to October 15Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Sheth, with Jayapal, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 16 to 22Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,329 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 23 to 29Bank the ballots
Every registered voter is mailed a ballot by October 16. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
- October 30 to November 2Turn them out
The last push goes to every identified supporter who has not voted yet; few drop-off voters live where Sheth is favored, so this is a chase, not a turnout drive. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes close at 8 p.m. that day. Voters can still register and vote in person at a county voting center through Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Washington has no polling places: drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m., and voters can register in person and vote the same day. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop box in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 74.5 points; Ferguson carried the 2024 governor's race by 68.7 points; Murray carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 74.4 points.
- Sheth wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jayapal.
- It would take a national shift of about 69.2 points toward Sheth's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
1,644 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 31,370 dials to 10,457 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,666 at our published rates: 10,457 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Nirav Sheth (R)
An immigrant from India and Marine Corps veteran, he served as a Lakewood police officer and later as managing partner of Bistro Baffi, an Italian restaurant in Normandy Park.
Cash on hand $5,044 and $11,811 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 22, 2026.
Pramila Jayapal (D)
U.S. representative since 2017 and the first Indian American woman elected to the House, she previously represented the 37th District in the Washington State Senate.
Cash on hand $1,766,786 and $2,502,816 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Jayapal +71.4. Nirav Sheth needs 251,737 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Can Nirav Sheth win Washington's 7th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 7,503 net votes against a gap of 251,737; the rest would take a 69.2-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Nirav Sheth needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Seattle Precinct 43-1992 (King County), Seattle Precinct 46-2266 (King County), Seattle Precinct 43-1819 (King County), Seattle Precinct 46-1959 (King County), Burien Precinct 33-1057 (King County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Nirav Sheth need to persuade?
About 3,664 voters who lean Pramila Jayapal today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,329 persuadable voters leaning Pramila Jayapal.
When are ballots mailed in Washington in 2026?
Washington votes by mail. County elections offices mail every registered voter a ballot by October 16, 2026, 18 days before Election Day, and county voting centers open the same day. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before counties certify; drop boxes close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. Online and mail registration closes October 26, and voters can register and vote in person at a county voting center through 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Washington Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Washington Secretary of State, election results
- Washington Secretary of State, election results and voters' pamphlets
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)