Upset Brief · WA-08 · Spencer Meline (R) vs. Kim Schrier (D), incumbent

Meline gets within 7,862 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.3-point national shift finishes it.

18%
odds today
37%
odds with the plan
21,516
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 16
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 31-857 (Pierce County)
    Starting line Meline +36. 4.5% split their ticket. About 410 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +68
  2. 02
    Precinct 31-135 (Pierce County)
    Starting line Meline +30. 5.1% split their ticket. About 338 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +57
  3. 03
    Dry Creek (Kittitas County)
    Starting line Meline +39. 7.1% split their ticket. About 189 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +56
  4. 04
    Precinct 175 (Chelan County)
    Starting line Meline +16. 8.3% split their ticket. About 270 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +56
  5. 05
    Precinct 31-154 (Pierce County)
    Starting line Meline +35. 4.5% split their ticket. About 313 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +55
  6. 06
    Precinct 31-927 (Pierce County)
    Starting line Meline +34. 5.7% split their ticket. About 297 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +55

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    10,332 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Schrier today.
    +10,332
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 33,159 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Meline's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,788
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Meline's way.
    +535

Plus a national shift of 2.3 points of margin (7,862 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Meline wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Schrier.
  2. In Precinct 31-857 (Pierce County) and Precinct 31-154 (Pierce County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 2.3 points toward Meline's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    894 precincts, R² 0.983, 165 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -46,905 to 32,026 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Meline $89,862 cash on hand; Schrier $3,508,751.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    38,192 households, 114,575 dials, about 6,004 live conversations: an estimated $11,820 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $11,820 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Washington races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.