Washington · U.S. House · District 8 · November 3, 2026

How Spencer Meline wins.

Schrier starts 6.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets Meline within 7,862 votes; a 2.3-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Precinct 31-857 (Pierce County), Precinct 31-135 (Pierce County) and Dry Creek (Kittitas County).

21,516

net votes between Meline and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 16.

6.3 pts

Schrier lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Washington races ranked ›

Meline gets within 7,862 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.3-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today18%

Odds with the plan37%

Net votes to find21,516

WherePrecinct 31-857 (Pierce County), Precinct 31-135 (Pierce County), Dry Creek (Kittitas County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Schrier +6.2. Spencer Meline needs 21,234 net votes. Odds 19% today, 38% with the plan.

The number

169,689 votes.

That is half of the 339,376 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Meline stands today, and what is missing:

157,257 Spencer Meline baseline

178,773 Kim Schrier baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

18% today. 37% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Meline wins in

37%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

18%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Meline short by 7,536.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

10K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 10,332

Who. 10,332 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Schrier today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Meline needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Schrier.

Mobilize

2,788

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 33,159

Who. At least 33,159 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Meline's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

535

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,528

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Meline's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 13,655 net votes against a gap of 21,516. Still 7,861 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 2.3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 5% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 31-857 (Pierce County)mobilize
Starting line Meline +36. 4.5% split their ticket. About 410 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+68
02
Precinct 31-135 (Pierce County)mobilize
Starting line Meline +30. 5.1% split their ticket. About 338 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+57
03
Dry Creek (Kittitas County)persuade
Starting line Meline +39. 7.1% split their ticket. About 189 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+56
04
Precinct 175 (Chelan County)persuade
Starting line Meline +16. 8.3% split their ticket. About 270 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+56
05
Precinct 31-154 (Pierce County)mobilize
Starting line Meline +35. 4.5% split their ticket. About 313 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+55
06
Precinct 31-927 (Pierce County)mobilize
Starting line Meline +34. 5.7% split their ticket. About 297 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+55
07
Precinct 135 (Chelan County)mobilize
Starting line Meline +47. 4.6% split their ticket. About 222 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+55
08
Precinct 02-141 (Pierce County)mobilize
Starting line Meline +34. 4.6% split their ticket. About 270 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+53
09
Precinct 147 (Chelan County)mobilize
Starting line Meline +38. 6.4% split their ticket. About 228 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+53
10
Precinct 02-148 (Pierce County)mobilize
Starting line Meline +40. 5.2% split their ticket. About 206 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+52
11
Thorp (Kittitas County)mobilize
Starting line Meline +32. 5.3% split their ticket. About 342 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+52
12
Precinct 02-167 (Pierce County)mobilize
Starting line Meline +40. 5.4% split their ticket. About 221 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+49

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 31-857 (Pierce County) carries the most.

Precinct 31-857 (Pierce County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 68. It sits at Meline +36 on our starting line, and 4.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 31-154 (Pierce County) is a turnout target.

Meline's side leads Precinct 31-154 (Pierce County) by about 35 points on our starting line, and it cast about 313 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 37 votes there.

Precinct 175 (Chelan County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 175 (Chelan County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 8.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, Schrier had $3.51 million in cash on hand to Meline's $90K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Meline's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 894
Slope: 0.909
R²: 0.983
Residual SD: 3.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 165

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Meline's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 16.

Now to October 15
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Meline, with Schrier, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 16 to 22
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 10,332 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 23 to 29
Bank the ballots
Every registered voter is mailed a ballot by October 16. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 33,159 of them live where Meline is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes close at 8 p.m. that day. Voters can still register and vote in person at a county voting center through Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Washington has no polling places: drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m., and voters can register in person and vote the same day. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop box in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 5.7 points; Reichert carried the 2024 governor's race by 5.6 points; Murray carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 1.3 points.

Meline wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Schrier.
In Precinct 31-857 (Pierce County) and Precinct 31-154 (Pierce County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 2.3 points toward Meline's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

6,004 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 114,575 dials to 38,192 households, before the last ballot is cast.

38K

households on the target list

115K

dials across three attempts

6,004

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $11,820 at our published rates: 38,192 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Spencer Meline (R)

A Washington-born small business owner who co-owns three restaurants in Leavenworth, he lives in Cashmere with his wife and four children and is endorsed by the King and Snohomish County Republican parties.

Cash on hand $89,862 and $126,517 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Kim Schrier (D)

U.S. representative since 2019, she is a pediatrician who practiced at Virginia Mason in Issaquah; she holds a BS from UC Berkeley and an MD from UC Davis.

Cash on hand $3,508,751 and $3,016,894 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Schrier +6.2. Spencer Meline needs 21,234 net votes. Odds 19% today, 38% with the plan.

Questions

Can Spencer Meline win Washington's 8th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 13,655 net votes; the gap is 21,516. The rest would take a 2.3-point national shift.

Where are the votes Spencer Meline needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 31-857 (Pierce County), Precinct 31-135 (Pierce County), Dry Creek (Kittitas County), Precinct 175 (Chelan County), Precinct 31-154 (Pierce County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Spencer Meline need to persuade?

About 5,166 voters who lean Kim Schrier today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 10,332 persuadable voters leaning Kim Schrier.

When are ballots mailed in Washington in 2026?

Washington votes by mail. County elections offices mail every registered voter a ballot by October 16, 2026, 18 days before Election Day, and county voting centers open the same day. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before counties certify; drop boxes close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. Online and mail registration closes October 26, and voters can register and vote in person at a county voting center through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Washington Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.