Upset Brief · WA-09 · Doug Basler (R) vs. Adam Smith (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 39.9-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
103,848
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 16
Where
  1. 01
    Bellevue Precinct 41-3583 (King County)
    Starting line Smith +27. 11.6% split their ticket.
    +32
  2. 02
    Bellevue Precinct 41-2556 (King County)
    Starting line Smith +26. 11.0% split their ticket.
    +29
  3. 03
    Mercer Island Precinct 41-0793 (King County)
    Starting line Smith +52. 12.3% split their ticket.
    +28
  4. 04
    Bellevue Precinct 41-2429 (King County)
    Starting line Smith +36. 9.8% split their ticket.
    +27
  5. 05
    Federal Way Precinct 30-3017 (King County)
    Starting line Smith +25. 9.5% split their ticket.
    +27
  6. 06
    Renton Precinct 11-1018 (King County)
    Starting line Smith +26. 9.1% split their ticket.
    +26

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,844 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Smith today.
    +5,844
  • M
    Mobilize
    Few precincts give Basler's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
    +32
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
    +328

Plus a national shift of 39.9 points of margin (97,644 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Basler wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Smith.
  2. It would take a national shift of about 39.9 points toward Basler's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    840 precincts, R² 0.989, 137 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -126,365 to -69,107 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Basler $5,021 cash on hand; Smith $869,549.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    9,155 households, 27,465 dials, about 1,439 live conversations: an estimated $4,313 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,313 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Washington races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.