What it would take for Doug Basler.
Smith starts 42.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,204 net votes toward Basler, a 2.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 39.9-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Basler the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 39.9-point national wave.
122,383 votes.
That is half of the 244,765 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Basler stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 5,844 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Smith today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Basler needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Smith.
Who. Few precincts give Basler's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 6,204 net votes against a gap of 103,848. Still 97,644 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 39.9 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 5% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+32Bellevue Precinct 41-3583 (King County)persuadeStarting line Smith +27. 11.6% split their ticket.
- 02+29Bellevue Precinct 41-2556 (King County)persuadeStarting line Smith +26. 11.0% split their ticket.
- 03+28Mercer Island Precinct 41-0793 (King County)persuadeStarting line Smith +52. 12.3% split their ticket.
- 04+27Bellevue Precinct 41-2429 (King County)persuadeStarting line Smith +36. 9.8% split their ticket.
- 05+27Federal Way Precinct 30-3017 (King County)persuadeStarting line Smith +25. 9.5% split their ticket.
- 06+26Renton Precinct 11-1018 (King County)persuadeStarting line Smith +26. 9.1% split their ticket.
- 07+26Newcastle Precinct 41-0840 (King County)persuadeStarting line Smith +29. 10.5% split their ticket.
- 08+26Timber (King County)persuadeStarting line Smith +31. 10.8% split their ticket.
- 09+24Bellevue Precinct 41-0111 (King County)persuadeStarting line Smith +34. 11.5% split their ticket.
- 10+22Federal Way Precinct 30-3086 (King County)persuadeStarting line Smith +24. 11.0% split their ticket.
- 11+22Newcastle Precinct 41-3241 (King County)persuadeStarting line Smith +47. 8.4% split their ticket.
- 12+22Mercer Island Precinct 41-0779 (King County)persuadeStarting line Smith +44. 10.5% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Bellevue Precinct 41-3583 (King County) carries the most.
Bellevue Precinct 41-3583 (King County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 32. It sits at Smith +27 on our starting line, and 11.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Spend it where it counts.
As of July 15, 2026, Smith had $870K in cash on hand to Basler's $5,021. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 6,204 net votes. The gap is 103,848. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.5 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Basler's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 840
- Slope
- 0.982
- R²
- 0.989
- Residual SD
- 2.6 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 137
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Basler's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 16.
- Now to October 15Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Basler, with Smith, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 16 to 22Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,844 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 23 to 29Bank the ballots
Every registered voter is mailed a ballot by October 16. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
- October 30 to November 2Turn them out
The last push goes to every identified supporter who has not voted yet; few drop-off voters live where Basler is favored, so this is a chase, not a turnout drive. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes close at 8 p.m. that day. Voters can still register and vote in person at a county voting center through Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Washington has no polling places: drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m., and voters can register in person and vote the same day. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop box in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 41.0 points; Ferguson carried the 2024 governor's race by 34.6 points; Murray carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 41.9 points.
- Basler wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Smith.
- It would take a national shift of about 39.9 points toward Basler's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
1,439 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 27,465 dials to 9,155 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,313 at our published rates: 9,155 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Doug Basler (R)
A Kent businessman who founded the digital advertising and video production firm Prologue Digital, he is a longtime Republican precinct committee officer and former King County Republican Party vice chairman focused on affordability, public safety and responsible government.
Cash on hand $5,021 and $12,242 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
Adam Smith (D)
U.S. representative since 1997 and the senior Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, he is an attorney who previously served in the Washington State Senate.
Cash on hand $869,549 and $1,882,001 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Smith +42.4. Doug Basler needs 103,848 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Can Doug Basler win Washington's 9th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 6,204 net votes against a gap of 103,848; the rest would take a 39.9-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Doug Basler needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Bellevue Precinct 41-3583 (King County), Bellevue Precinct 41-2556 (King County), Mercer Island Precinct 41-0793 (King County), Bellevue Precinct 41-2429 (King County), Federal Way Precinct 30-3017 (King County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Doug Basler need to persuade?
About 2,922 voters who lean Adam Smith today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,844 persuadable voters leaning Adam Smith.
When are ballots mailed in Washington in 2026?
Washington votes by mail. County elections offices mail every registered voter a ballot by October 16, 2026, 18 days before Election Day, and county voting centers open the same day. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before counties certify; drop boxes close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. Online and mail registration closes October 26, and voters can register and vote in person at a county voting center through 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Washington Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Washington Secretary of State, election results
- Washington Secretary of State, election results and voters' pamphlets
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)