A long shot on the math: it takes a 43.8-point national wave.

1. 01
   Laramie County

   Starting line Gray +36. 13.9% split their ticket.
   +2,309
2. 02
   Teton County

   Starting line Kinney +26. 17.4% split their ticket. 3,068 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
   +1,239
3. 03
   Natrona County

   Starting line Gray +51. 8.3% split their ticket.
   +1,076
4. 04
   Albany County

   Starting line Gray +7. 14.7% split their ticket.
   +1,069
5. 05
   Fremont County

   Starting line Gray +43. 10.9% split their ticket.
   +845
6. 06
   Sheridan County

   Starting line Gray +53. 7.7% split their ticket.
   +539

The top 12 counties carry 91% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  7,813 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gray today.
  +7,813
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 3,068 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Kinney's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +227
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Kinney's way.
  +1,063

Plus a national shift of 43.8 points of margin (86,848 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Kinney wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gray.
2. In Teton County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 43.8 points toward Kinney's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  428 precincts, R² 0.994, 80 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -109,934 to -63,506 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29

  Kinney $2,010 cash on hand; Gray $240,146.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  14,994 households, 44,982 dials, about 2,357 live conversations: an estimated $6,318 at published rates.