What it would take for Lisa Kinney.
Gray starts 48.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 9,103 net votes toward Kinney, a 4.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 43.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Kinney the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 43.8-point national wave.
99,100 votes.
That is half of the 198,198 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Kinney stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 7,813 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gray today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Kinney needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Gray.
Who. At least 3,068 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Kinney's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Kinney's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 9,103 net votes against a gap of 95,951. Still 86,848 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 43.8 points that no campaign controls.
12 counties carry 91% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+2,309Laramie CountypersuadeStarting line Gray +36. 13.9% split their ticket.
- 02+1,239Teton CountypersuadeStarting line Kinney +26. 17.4% split their ticket. 3,068 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 03+1,076Natrona CountypersuadeStarting line Gray +51. 8.3% split their ticket.
- 04+1,069Albany CountypersuadeStarting line Gray +7. 14.7% split their ticket.
- 05+845Fremont CountypersuadeStarting line Gray +43. 10.9% split their ticket.
- 06+539Sheridan CountypersuadeStarting line Gray +53. 7.7% split their ticket.
- 07+349Sweetwater CountypersuadeStarting line Gray +53. 4.6% split their ticket.
- 08+253Park CountypersuadeStarting line Gray +62. 3.1% split their ticket.
- 09+190Campbell CountypersuadeStarting line Gray +75. 2.5% split their ticket.
- 10+155Carbon CountypersuadeStarting line Gray +59. 5.6% split their ticket.
- 11+143Johnson CountypersuadeStarting line Gray +66. 6.6% split their ticket.
- 12+138Goshen CountypersuadeStarting line Gray +65. 5.1% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Laramie County carries the most.
Laramie County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 2,309. It sits at Gray +36 on our starting line, and 13.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Teton County is a turnout race.
Kinney's side leads Teton County by about 26 points on our starting line, and it cast 3,068 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022. Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 227 votes there.
Spend it where it counts.
As of July 29, 2026, Gray had $240K in cash on hand to Kinney's $2,010. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 9,103 net votes. The gap is 95,951. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 4.6 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Kinney's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 428
- Slope
- 0.994
- R²
- 0.994
- Residual SD
- 2.5 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 80
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Kinney's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 6.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Kinney, with Gray, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,813 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 19 to 26Bank the ballots
Wyoming mails absentee ballots starting October 6, and in-person absentee voting runs at county clerk offices through November 2. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 27 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 3,068 of them live where Kinney is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county clerk by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Wyoming registers voters at the polling place on Election Day with proof of identity, citizenship and residency. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Hageman carried the 2024 House race by 47.4 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 45.8 points; Gordon carried the 2022 governor's race by 58.3 points.
- Kinney wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gray.
- In Teton County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 43.8 points toward Kinney's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
2,357 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 44,982 dials to 14,994 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,318 at our published rates: 14,994 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Lisa Kinney (D)
Lifelong Laramie resident and University of Wyoming law graduate who served a decade in the Wyoming Senate, including two years as minority leader; as director of the Albany County Library she helped build a new library, and she has served as president of the Albany County Chamber of Commerce.
Cash on hand $2,010 and $17,946 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.
Chuck Gray (R)
Wyoming Secretary of State since 2023 and a Casper state representative (House District 57) from 2017 to 2023; a Wharton School economics graduate who worked in his family's Casper radio business as operations manager and was a founding member of the Wyoming Freedom Caucus.
Cash on hand $240,146 and $1,621,197 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.
Shawn Johnson (L)
Served 21 years as an Army combat medic in the Wyoming National Guard, including a 2003 to 2004 deployment to Iraq, then 13 years with the Natrona County Sheriff's Office; elected to the Casper City Council in 2014, he served two terms including a year as vice mayor.
Jeffrey Haggit (C)
Mountain View resident who chairs the Constitution Party of Wyoming and was chosen as its 2026 U.S. House nominee; campaigns on holding the federal government to its constitutional limits.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Gray +48.4. Lisa Kinney needs 95,951 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Can Lisa Kinney win Wyoming's at-large congressional district in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 9,103 net votes; the gap is 95,951. The rest would take a 43.8-point national shift.
Where are the votes Lisa Kinney needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Laramie County, Teton County, Natrona County, Albany County, Fremont County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Lisa Kinney need to persuade?
About 3,906 voters who lean Chuck Gray today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,813 persuadable voters leaning Chuck Gray.
When does early voting start in Wyoming in 2026?
Wyoming mails absentee ballots starting October 6, 2026, and in-person absentee voting runs at county clerk offices from October 6 through November 2. No excuse is needed. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Regular registration closes October 19, voters can still register in person at the county clerk through November 2, and Wyoming offers registration at the polls on Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Wyoming Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Wyoming Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Wyoming Secretary of State, 2024 general election results
- Wyoming Secretary of State, key election dates
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wyoming Public Media: Gray narrowly wins Republican bid for U.S. House, Kinney wins Democratic landslide
- Cowboy State Daily: Opponents Blast Hageman, Gray For Skipping PBS Debates Ahead Of General Election
- County 17: Former Casper vice mayor Shawn Johnson seeks Libertarian nod for US House
- Wikipedia: Chuck Gray (Wyoming politician)
- Wikipedia: Lisa F. Kinney