Where a dollar moves a Wyoming race.
2 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.
| Race | Odds: today → with the plan | Lift | Net votes | Call program | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming U.S. Senate James Byrd vs. Harriet Hageman | 0% → 0% | +0 pts | 102,839 | $4,325 9,181 households | Brief › |
| WY-AL Lisa Kinney vs. Chuck Gray | 0% → 0% | +0 pts | 95,951 | $6,318 14,994 households | Brief › |
Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 49.4-point national wave.
Where
- Laramie County +928Starting line Hageman +42. 809 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 13,396 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- Teton County +763Starting line Byrd +18. 543 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 3,068 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- Albany County +586Starting line Hageman +14. 499 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 5,182 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- Fremont County +495Starting line Hageman +47. 421 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 3,662 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- Natrona County +349Starting line Hageman +55. 268 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 11,251 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
The top 12 counties carry 89% of the plan.
How
- Persuade +4,0624,062 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hageman today.
- Mobilize +168At least 3,068 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Byrd's side wins at least 55 percent.
- Consolidate +740Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Byrd's way.
Plus a 49.4-point national shift (97,869 votes) that no campaign controls.
What has to be true
- Byrd wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hageman.
- In Teton County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 49.4 points toward Byrd's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
- Crossover regression429 precincts, slope 0.898, R² 0.987, 68 crossover precincts
- Monte Carlo20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -120,603 to -74,858
- Cash on hand, July 29Byrd $356 · Hageman $915,369
- Call program9,181 households, 27,544 dials, about 1,443 live conversations and 492 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
A long shot on the math: it takes a 43.8-point national wave.
Where
- Laramie County +2,309Starting line Gray +36. 13.9% split their ticket.
- Teton County +1,239Starting line Kinney +26. 17.4% split their ticket. 3,068 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- Natrona County +1,076Starting line Gray +51. 8.3% split their ticket.
- Albany County +1,069Starting line Gray +7. 14.7% split their ticket.
- Fremont County +845Starting line Gray +43. 10.9% split their ticket.
The top 12 counties carry 91% of the plan.
How
- Persuade +7,8137,813 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gray today.
- Mobilize +227At least 3,068 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Kinney's side wins at least 55 percent.
- Consolidate +1,063Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Kinney's way.
Plus a 43.8-point national shift (86,848 votes) that no campaign controls.
What has to be true
- Kinney wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gray.
- In Teton County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 43.8 points toward Kinney's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
- Crossover regression428 precincts, slope 0.994, R² 0.994, 80 crossover precincts
- Monte Carlo20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -109,934 to -63,506
- Cash on hand, July 29Kinney $2,010 · Gray $240,146
- Call program14,994 households, 44,982 dials, about 2,357 live conversations and 804 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Wyoming Secretary of State precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.