Upset Brief · Wyoming U.S. Senate · James Byrd (D) vs. Harriet Hageman (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 49.4-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
102,839
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Laramie County
    Starting line Hageman +42. 809 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 13,396 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +928
  2. 02
    Teton County
    Starting line Byrd +18. 543 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 3,068 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +763
  3. 03
    Albany County
    Starting line Hageman +14. 499 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 5,182 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +586
  4. 04
    Fremont County
    Starting line Hageman +47. 421 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 3,662 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +495
  5. 05
    Natrona County
    Starting line Hageman +55. 268 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 11,251 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +349
  6. 06
    Sheridan County
    Starting line Hageman +56. 274 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 4,156 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +321

The top 12 counties carry 89% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,062 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hageman today.
    +4,062
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 3,068 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Byrd's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +168
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Byrd's way.
    +740

Plus a national shift of 49.4 points of margin (97,869 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Byrd wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hageman.
  2. In Teton County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 49.4 points toward Byrd's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    429 precincts, R² 0.987, 68 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -120,603 to -74,858 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Byrd $356 cash on hand; Hageman $915,369.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    9,181 households, 27,544 dials, about 1,443 live conversations: an estimated $4,325 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,325 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Wyoming races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Wyoming Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.