Wyoming · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

What it would take for James Byrd.

Hageman starts 51.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,970 net votes toward Byrd, a 2.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 49.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Byrd the one standing if one comes.

102,839

net votes between Byrd and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opens October 6.

51.9 pts

Hageman lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Wyoming races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 49.4-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find102,839

WhereLaramie County, Teton County, Albany County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Hageman +51.9. James Byrd needs 102,839 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

99,100 votes.

That is half of the 198,198 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Byrd stands today, and what is missing:

42,498 James Byrd baseline

145,338 Harriet Hageman baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this state (President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Byrd wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Byrd short by 97,800.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

4,062

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,062

Who. 4,062 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hageman today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Byrd needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Hageman.

Mobilize

168

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,068

Who. At least 3,068 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Byrd's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

740

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,115

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Byrd's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,970 net votes against a gap of 102,839. Still 97,869 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 49.4 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 89% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Laramie Countypersuade
Starting line Hageman +42. 809 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 13,396 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+928
02
Teton Countypersuade
Starting line Byrd +18. 543 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 3,068 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+763
03
Albany Countypersuade
Starting line Hageman +14. 499 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 5,182 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+586
04
Fremont Countypersuade
Starting line Hageman +47. 421 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 3,662 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+495
05
Natrona Countypersuade
Starting line Hageman +55. 268 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 11,251 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+349
06
Sheridan Countypersuade
Starting line Hageman +56. 274 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 4,156 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+321
07
Sweetwater Countypersuade
Starting line Hageman +56. 209 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 4,658 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+254
08
Park Countypersuade
Starting line Hageman +63. 198 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 3,899 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+247
09
Campbell Countypersuade
Starting line Hageman +76. 162 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 5,716 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+189
10
Lincoln Countypersuade
Starting line Hageman +70. 74 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 3,314 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+92
11
Converse Countypersuade
Starting line Hageman +72. 74 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 1,627 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+90
12
Goshen Countypersuade
Starting line Hageman +67. 73 persuadable voters leaning Hageman; 1,278 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+84

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Laramie County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Laramie County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 928. It sits at Hageman +42 on our starting line.

Teton County is a turnout race.

Byrd's side leads Teton County by about 18 points on our starting line, and it cast 3,068 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022. Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 168 votes there.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Hageman had $915K in cash on hand to Byrd's $356. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 4,970 net votes. The gap is 102,839. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.5 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Byrd's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 429
Slope: 0.898
R²: 0.987
Residual SD: 3.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 68

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Byrd's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Byrd, with Hageman, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,062 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 26
Bank the ballots
Wyoming mails absentee ballots starting October 6, and in-person absentee voting runs at county clerk offices through November 2. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 3,068 of them live where Byrd is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county clerk by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Wyoming registers voters at the polling place on Election Day with proof of identity, citizenship and residency. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 45.8 points; Barrasso carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 51.0 points; Gordon carried the 2022 governor's race by 58.3 points.

Byrd wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hageman.
In Teton County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 49.4 points toward Byrd's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,443 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 27,544 dials to 9,181 households, before the last ballot is cast.

9,181

households on the target list

28K

dials across three attempts

1,443

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,325 at our published rates: 9,181 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

James Byrd (D)

Cheyenne native and fifth-generation Wyomingite who represented House District 44 in the Wyoming House from 2009 to 2019 and has served as president of the Southeast Wyoming Economic Development District. He worked in energy exploration geophysics before building a career in information technology, and his mother, Harriet Elizabeth "Liz" Byrd, was the first Black woman elected to the Wyoming Legislature.

Cash on hand $356 and $22,559 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite

Harriet Hageman (R)

U.S. representative for Wyoming's at-large district since 2023 and a fourth-generation Wyomingite raised on a ranch near Fort Laramie; a University of Wyoming business and law graduate who clerked on the 10th Circuit and built a career as a trial attorney, including representing Wyoming in Nebraska v. Wyoming over the North Platte River.

Cash on hand $915,369 and $2,435,023 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Hageman +51.9. James Byrd needs 102,839 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can James Byrd win the U.S. Senate race in Wyoming in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,970 net votes; the gap is 102,839. The rest would take a 49.4-point national shift.

Where are the votes James Byrd needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Laramie County, Teton County, Albany County, Fremont County, Natrona County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does James Byrd need to persuade?

About 2,031 voters who lean Harriet Hageman today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,062 persuadable voters leaning Harriet Hageman.

When does early voting start in Wyoming in 2026?

Wyoming mails absentee ballots starting October 6, 2026, and in-person absentee voting runs at county clerk offices from October 6 through November 2. No excuse is needed. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Regular registration closes October 19, voters can still register in person at the county clerk through November 2, and Wyoming offers registration at the polls on Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Wyoming Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Wyoming Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.

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