Control of the House, the Senate and the statehouses on November 3, 2026.
We now put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 10%, down from 14%, as of October 15. AAA put the average at $4.3344 on October 15, about 17 cents below the line with under three weeks left, and crude has stayed inside its recent range despite new attacks on shipping.
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
10%
Very unlikely
As of October 15, 2026, we give Democrat James Talarico a 54 percent chance of beating Republican Ken Paxton, down from 59. Four polls released this week show the race tightening, from a tie to a four-point Talarico lead, and the UT/Texas Politics Project poll finds 92 percent of Republican likely voters now back Paxton.
Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
54%
Toss-up
As of October 15, 2026, we give Sen. Susan Collins a 42 percent chance of winning a sixth term. Troy Jackson leads most recent polls by two to five points, but Collins won by nearly 9 in 2020 after trailing in polls for most of that cycle, so her record keeps this a genuine Toss Up.
Will Susan Collins win reelection in the 2026 Maine Senate race against Troy Jackson?
42%
Toss-up
No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: we hold at 8% that President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2027. In a TIME interview published October 1 he again declined to rule it out, but that is one more threat without action, and the Pentagon told a senator in writing it plans no troops at polls.
Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?
8%
Very unlikely
As of October 15, 2026, we give Republican Vivek Ramaswamy a 34 percent chance of winning Ohio's governor race, down from 37. Correcting our poll average to include Marist's late September survey, Amy Acton leads five recent polls by an average of five points, and early in-person voting is running at nearly four times its 2022 pace.
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio governor's race?
34%
Unlikely
As of October 15, 2026, we put the chance that Democrats win the House at 92 percent, up from 91. Republican groups have begun abandoning endangered incumbents, and senior Republicans told Politico the House had all but slipped away. Much of that retreat reflects polling we had already priced, so the move is small; a polling miss is the main risk.
Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?
92%
Very likely
As of October 15, 2026, we give Republicans a 34 percent chance of keeping the Senate, up from 33. Texas tightened, with our Talarico forecast down to 54 percent, and Iowa is a true Toss Up rather than a Democratic lean, while Roy Cooper leads by 14 in North Carolina and Troy Jackson still leads narrowly in Maine.
Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
34%
Unlikely
As of October 15, 2026, Chuck Schumer is the most likely Senate Majority Leader in January 2027, at 48 percent, up from 46, ahead of John Thune at 32. Our Senate forecast gives Democrats a 66 percent chance of control, and Axios reports Schumer is more than favored to win the caucus secret ballot.
Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
48%
Chuck Schumer
As of October 15, 2026, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has an 87 percent chance of being elected Speaker in January 2027, up from 86. Our House forecast now gives Democrats 92 percent after Republican groups began abandoning endangered seats, and a new majority almost always elects its leader; Mike Johnson needs a Republican hold.
Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
87%
Hakeem Jeffries
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.