Control of the House, the Senate and the statehouses on November 3, 2026.
We put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 33%, as of September 26. Gas sits at $4.49 and Trump rejected Iran's plan to reopen Hormuz, but in 25 of the last 36 years pump prices fell between late September and early November.
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
33%
Unlikely
As of September 26, 2026, we give Democrat James Talarico a 52 percent chance of beating Republican Ken Paxton for the Texas Senate seat. Recent polls are within one point and Paxton is winning only 84 percent of Republicans, but Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988 and Democrats have trailed their polls there before.
Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
52%
Toss-up
We put the chance at 8% that President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027. The biggest reason: he has threatened to use it at least four times since 2020 without once following through, and his administration keeps building workarounds rather than taking that step.
Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?
8%
Very unlikely
As of September 26, 2026, we give Republican Vivek Ramaswamy a 45 percent chance of winning Ohio's governor race. Ohio has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006, but Democrat Amy Acton leads the RealClear Polling average 47.5 to 46.5 and is better liked, in a national environment running about eight points toward Democrats.
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio governor's race?
45%
Toss-up
As of September 26, 2026, we put the chance that Democrats win the House at 88 percent. They need a net gain of only three seats, lead the generic ballot by about eight points, and face a president near 33 percent approval. New Republican-drawn maps are the main reason this is not higher.
Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?
88%
Very likely
As of September 26, 2026, we give Republicans a 42 percent chance of keeping the Senate. They hold 53 seats, so Democrats must net four, but a roughly eight point Democratic national environment has put Republican seats in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska and Texas at real risk, while Democrats look safe in Georgia.
Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
42%
Toss-up
As of September 26, 2026, Chuck Schumer is narrowly the most likely Senate Majority Leader in January 2027, at 40 percent, just ahead of John Thune at 39. Who leads depends mostly on which party wins the Senate, which our desk puts at 58 percent Democratic, and on whether Democrats keep Schumer despite growing opposition.
Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
40%
Chuck Schumer
As of September 26, 2026, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has an 84 percent chance of being elected Speaker when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats, and a Democratic majority would almost certainly elect its leader; Speaker Mike Johnson's path requires Republicans to hold the House.
Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
84%
Hakeem Jeffries
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.