Control of the House, the Senate and the statehouses on November 3, 2026.
We now put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 14%, down from 33%, as of October 12. AAA put the average at $4.36 on October 8, and Trump pledged no strikes on Iran before the midterms, leaving a hurricane or supply disruption as the main path back up.
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
14%
Very unlikely
As of October 12, 2026, we give Democrat James Talarico a 59 percent chance of beating Republican Ken Paxton, up from 52. All three polls fielded since late September, including the New York Times and Siena, show Talarico ahead by two to six points, but Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
59%
Toss-up
No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: we hold at 8% that President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2027. In a TIME interview published October 1 he again declined to rule it out, but that is one more threat without action, and the Pentagon told a senator in writing it plans no troops at polls.
Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?
8%
Very unlikely
As of October 12, 2026, we give Republican Vivek Ramaswamy a 37 percent chance of winning Ohio's governor race, down from 45. Three of four polls released since late September put Democrat Amy Acton ahead, by four to nine points. Ohio's Republican lean keeps him close, but he now needs a polling miss.
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio governor's race?
37%
Unlikely
As of October 12, 2026, we put the chance that Democrats win the House at 91 percent, up from 88. The Cook Political Report moved 18 House races toward Democrats in its October update, as Axios reported on October 9, tripping our signpost and pointing to a gain well past the three seats needed. Redrawn maps remain the main risk.
Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?
91%
Very likely
As of October 12, 2026, we give Republicans a 33 percent chance of keeping the Senate, down from 42. New York Times/Siena polls released October 3 showed Democrats ahead in Alaska, Texas and Ohio, later October polls kept Talarico and Brown ahead by four or more, and Maine polls mostly favor Troy Jackson.
Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
33%
Unlikely
As of October 12, 2026, Chuck Schumer is the most likely Senate Majority Leader in January 2027, at 46 percent, ahead of John Thune at 31. Our Senate forecast now gives Democrats a 67 percent chance of control after October polls showed them ahead in Alaska, Texas and Ohio, though Schumer still faces opposition from several Democratic nominees.
Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
46%
Chuck Schumer
As of October 12, 2026, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has an 86 percent chance of being elected Speaker in January 2027, up from 84. Our House forecast now gives Democrats 91 percent after Cook moved 18 races their way, and a new majority almost always elects its leader; Mike Johnson needs a Republican hold.
Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
86%
Hakeem Jeffries
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.