Will Susan Collins win reelection in the 2026 Maine Senate race against Troy Jackson?

Collins has won five elections in a state that votes for Democrats for president by selling herself as an independent Republican who delivers for Maine. The New York Times reported on October 14 that this year she is squeezed by anger over prices, a call for generational change and a desire among many voters to make a statement against President Trump. Bloomberg framed her independence from Trump as the key dividing line in the race, in a state that voted against him by 7 points in 2024 and is feeling his tariffs on Canada and higher heating costs from the Iran war.

Her record of delivering is still her strongest asset. Latin Times reported that voters favor her by 24 points on who can better deliver for the state, and that she leads among older voters in an AARP survey, in the state with the oldest median population. But 58 percent of likely voters in the Washington Post-Schar School poll said she sides with Trump too often. Jackson, a logger and former state Senate president who became the nominee at an emergency convention in July, is running on economic anger and has campaigned with Bernie Sanders, a bet that working-class turnout will outweigh Collins's appeal to swing voters.

The reference class is Senate incumbents seeking reelection in the six midterms from 2002 to 2022: by our count from the Brookings Vital Statistics table, 145 of 169 were reelected, about 86 percent. Collins herself is 5 for 5 in Senate general elections. That rate describes incumbents in general, most of whom were never behind in October polling.

The closest analogue is Collins's own 2020 race: she trailed Sara Gideon in polls for most of the cycle and won by nearly 9 points. The analogy breaks on the environment. In 2020 she ran in a presidential year, with Trump on the ballot driving her own party's turnout. In 2026 she runs in a midterm with an unpopular president of her own party, the setting that cost moderate Republicans such as Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island in 2006 and Dean Heller in Nevada in 2018 their seats.

Start from the base rate of about 86 percent for incumbents and adjust in the open. Our number, 42 percent, sits far below it, and we defend that departure: the reference class is mostly incumbents who led in their polls, and Collins trails. The recent polls we could verify: Suffolk, Jackson 49 to 47; the Washington Post-Schar School, Jackson 50 to 46 among likely voters; Marist, Jackson 51 to 47 among registered voters; UMass Lowell/YouGov, fielded August 28 to September 14, Jackson 48 to 43. Latin Times summarized a University of New Hampshire poll at Jackson plus four and a Maine People's Resource Center poll at plus two, and CBS News/YouGov had the race tied. The only independent poll with Collins ahead, New York Times/Siena in mid September, had her up three. Our calculation: the average of those eight margins is Jackson by a little over two points.

Arithmetic, our calculation: start from a Jackson lead of about two and a quarter. Credit Collins once, with about two points, for her record of running ahead of her polls; that single credit covers her personal brand, which is what produced the 2020 gap, so we do not add a separate brand bonus. Then take back about a point because late deciders in midterms tend to break against the president's party. That leaves an expected Jackson edge of roughly a point and a quarter; with a typical Senate polling error of about six points three weeks out, that is about 0.2 standard deviations, or roughly a 42 percent chance for Collins. Ranked-choice voting adds nothing in what is effectively a two-way race, and where it has decided a Maine federal race, in the 2018 Second District, it favored the Democrat. We land at 42 percent, with a range of 30 to 54.