Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?

This race is a test of whether party loyalty beats candidate doubts. Paxton, the state attorney general, beat Sen. John Cornyn in a bruising primary runoff, and part of Cornyn's coalition has not come home. In the Texas Southern University poll only 84 percent of Republicans back Paxton, while 7 percent choose Talarico. Late-deciding Republicans usually return to their party, so the key question is how many of those holdouts stay away or cross over.

Talarico, a state representative, runs as a faith-forward Democrat aimed at suburban and younger voters. The Emerson poll shows a sharp age split: voters under 50 favor him by 15 points, voters over 50 favor Paxton by 11. Midterm electorates skew older, so Talarico's path depends on unusually strong turnout among younger Texans, which the national enthusiasm gap currently supports.

The reference class is Texas Senate races since 1990: Democrats lost all 13, and the last Democrat elected was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Big money has not broken the streak. Beto O'Rourke raised nearly $45 million more than Ted Cruz in 2018 and still lost by 2.6 points, and Colin Allred outraised Cruz by about $21 million in 2024 and lost by 8.5.

The closest analogue is O'Rourke in 2018, a charismatic Democrat against a polarizing Republican in a Trump midterm. The analogy breaks in three ways that favor Talarico: the national environment is now worse for Republicans than in 2018, the Republican nominee is struggling to unify his own party, and Hispanic voters who swung right in 2024 are now breaking against the president, with Emerson finding 58 percent of Texas Hispanic voters disapprove of him.

Start from the Texas prior. Zero Democratic wins in 13 tries since 1990, smoothed with the rule of succession, gives about 7 percent. That prior reflects ordinary years; it is weak evidence against a race where current polling is tied. So we give the polls most of the weight: the Texas Southern poll of 1,800 likely voters has Talarico up 47 to 46, and the August Emerson poll had Paxton up 47 to 46. A race tied in late September is close to a coin flip, about 50 percent.

Adjust up about 5 points for the national environment near D+8 and Paxton's weak consolidation. Adjust up 1 point for Talarico's money edge, heavily discounted given the O'Rourke and Allred record. Adjust down about 4 points because Texas Democrats finished behind their final polls in 2020 and 2024 and undecided Republicans tend to come home in a state that voted for Trump by double digits. Net: 52 percent. The Kalshi market at 60 percent is more bullish on Talarico than we are.