National elections around the world, with win probabilities and what each result means for the United States.
| Question | Odds |
|---|---|
| Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election? | 15% Very unlikely |
| Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027? | 55% Toss-up |
| Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election? | 48% Toss-up |
| Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? | 46% Toss-up |
We give Lula a 15 percent chance of winning Brazil's October 25 runoff as of October 15, 2026, up from 12. Flavio Bolsonaro still leads every runoff poll, but the two newest, PoderData and Quaest, cut his valid-vote edge to about 51 to 49, inside the margin of error, ten days before the vote.
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
15%
Very unlikely
As of October 15 we give Netanyahu a 55 percent chance of being Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027, up from 48. Polls put his bloc level with the Zionist opposition at about 52 seats each, short of 61, and Bennett says he will not rely on Arab parties, so a deadlock that keeps him as caretaker is likelier.
Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027?
55%
Toss-up
As of October 15, 2026, Chris Hipkins is the narrowest of favourites to be New Zealand's next prime minister at 48 percent, with Christopher Luxon at 45. The newest 1News-Verian poll has Opportunity at 8 percent and holding the balance of power, and Luxon has ruled out working with it, but Curia had Opportunity under the threshold.
Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?
48%
Chris Hipkins
As of October 15, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the most likely winner of France's 2027 presidential election at 46 percent, up from 42. She polls 35 to 37 percent in the first round, leads Edouard Philippe 56 to 44 in Toluna Harris, and Jean-Luc Melenchon, whom she beats by about two to one, now often finishes second.
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
46%
Marine Le Pen
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.