National elections around the world, with win probabilities and what each result means for the United States.
| Question | Odds |
|---|---|
| Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election? | 12% Very unlikely |
| Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027? | 48% Toss-up |
| Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election? | 47% Toss-up |
| Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? | 42% Toss-up |
We give Lula a 12 percent chance of winning Brazil's presidency as of October 12, 2026. Flavio Bolsonaro finished first on October 4 with about 47 percent to Lula's 45 after final polls had Lula ahead, then won endorsements from the third, fifth and sixth place finishers and leads every published runoff poll since.
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
12%
Very unlikely
No material change: as of October 12 we still give Netanyahu a 48 percent chance of being Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027. Polls before the October 27 election still leave his bloc short of a Knesset majority, and the opposition is short too without Arab parties, so a deadlock that keeps him as caretaker remains his likeliest path.
Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027?
48%
Toss-up
As of October 12, 2026, New Zealand's next prime minister is a coin flip: Christopher Luxon 47 percent, Chris Hipkins 46. The three newest major polls split two to one in favour of a left bloc majority, and the deciding factor is whether the Opportunity Party, polling at or just under 5 percent, clears the threshold on November 7.
Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?
47%
Christopher Luxon
As of September 26, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the most likely winner of France's 2027 presidential election at 42 percent. She polls 33 to 36 percent in the first round and leads every tested runoff, but her 55 to 45 edge over Edouard Philippe is narrow, and French far-right candidates have lost all three runoffs they reached.
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
42%
Marine Le Pen
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.