National elections around the world, with win probabilities and what each result means for the United States.
We give Lula a 46 percent chance of winning Brazil's presidency as of September 26, 2026. Runoff polls show a statistical tie with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, and the biggest reason we sit just under even is history: in 2022 the final polls overstated Lula's runoff margin by about two points while his government's approval is now underwater.
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
46%
Toss-up
We give Netanyahu a 48 percent chance of still being Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027, as of September 26, 2026. His bloc polls about 49 to 54 seats, short of 61, but the opposition is also short without Arab parties. A deadlock would leave him as caretaker, which is why this is near a coin flip.
Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027?
48%
Toss-up
As of September 26, 2026, Christopher Luxon is the slight favourite to be New Zealand's prime minister after the November 7 election, at 50 percent to Chris Hipkins's 42. The main reason is arithmetic: Labour has ruled out NZ First, so Hipkins needs four parties to govern, while Luxon's current coalition has more paths to 61 seats.
Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?
50%
Christopher Luxon
As of September 26, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the most likely winner of France's 2027 presidential election at 42 percent. She polls 33 to 36 percent in the first round and leads every tested runoff, but her 55 to 45 edge over Edouard Philippe is narrow, and French far-right candidates have lost all three runoffs they reached.
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
42%
Marine Le Pen
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.