Executive orders, agency rules, appointments and the court fights that follow them.
We put the chance the Fed raises rates on October 28, 2026 at 68%, as of September 26. The biggest reason: 16 of 18 officials project another hike this year and a voting governor says more is needed. We sit below the 77.5% futures price because the same hike could come in December, after the midterms.
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?
68%
Likely
We put the chance at 62% that the Supreme Court grants the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026. The biggest reason: the same Court stayed an earlier version of this order 6-3 in June 2025, and the government has won most of its immigration emergency requests.
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?
62%
Likely
We put the chance at 8% that President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027. The biggest reason: he has threatened to use it at least four times since 2020 without once following through, and his administration keeps building workarounds rather than taking that step.
Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?
8%
Very unlikely
As of September 26, 2026, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the narrow favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination at 17 percent, but the field is wide open: candidates outside our top seven total 27 percent. Harris leads polls, yet Newsom says he will not run if she does, making her decision the biggest swing factor.
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
17%
Gavin Newsom
As of September 26, 2026, we give Vice President JD Vance a 55 percent chance of winning the 2028 Republican nomination. He leads the national primary averages, holds the party's money machine as RNC finance chair, and his most plausible rival, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, says he has no plans to run and would back him.
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
55%
JD Vance
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.