Executive orders, agency rules, appointments and the court fights that follow them.
We now put the chance the Fed raises rates on October 28, 2026 at 18%, down from 68%, as of October 12. The biggest reason: September payrolls rose only 29,000 and New York Fed President John Williams said there is no need for urgency. September CPI on October 14 is the last chance to revive an October hike.
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?
18%
Very unlikely
We put the chance at 62% that the Supreme Court grants the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026. The biggest reason: the same Court stayed an earlier version of this order 6-3 in June 2025, and the government has won most of its immigration emergency requests.
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?
62%
Likely
No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: we hold at 8% that President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2027. In a TIME interview published October 1 he again declined to rule it out, but that is one more threat without action, and the Pentagon told a senator in writing it plans no troops at polls.
Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?
8%
Very unlikely
No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: California Gov. Gavin Newsom stays the narrow favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination at 17 percent, with candidates outside our top seven at 27. Harris still has not decided, and Newsom says he will not run if she does, so her decision remains the biggest swing factor.
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
17%
Gavin Newsom
No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: we hold Vice President JD Vance at 55 percent to win the 2028 Republican nomination. He still leads national primary averages and runs the party's money operation as RNC finance chair, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has not moved off his statement that he has no plans to run.
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
55%
JD Vance
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.