White House and executive action: forecasts and odds

Executive orders, agency rules, appointments and the court fights that follow them.

All white house and executive action forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?30% Unlikely
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?62% Likely
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its December 8-9, 2026 meeting?75% Likely
Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?8% Very unlikely
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?17% Very unlikely
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?55% Toss-up

Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?

We now put the chance the Fed raises rates on October 28, 2026 at 30%, up from 18%, as of October 15. September CPI rose 3.7% over the year with core prices up 0.3% for the month, a tenth above forecasts, and producer prices jumped 1.3%. Officials still describe one more hike this year without naming a meeting, and markets favor December.

Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?

30%

Unlikely

Closed, awaiting resultDown 38 pts

Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?

We put the chance at 62% that the Supreme Court grants the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026. The biggest reason: the same Court stayed an earlier version of this order 6-3 in June 2025, and the government has won most of its immigration emergency requests.

Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?

62%

Likely

Resolved YESv1

Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?

No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: we hold at 8% that President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2027. In a TIME interview published October 1 he again declined to rule it out, but that is one more threat without action, and the Pentagon told a senator in writing it plans no troops at polls.

Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?

8%

Very unlikely

Closes Dec 31, 2026Update duev2

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