No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: California Gov. Gavin Newsom stays the narrow favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination at 17 percent, with candidates outside our top seven at 27. Harris still has not decided, and Newsom says he will not run if she does, so her decision remains the biggest swing factor.
Why it matters: The Democratic nominee sets the party's offer on prices, health care, immigration and the Iran war for the first open presidential race since 2016, and decides which wing of the party leads it into 2029.
TPG forecast: most likely
Someone else
27%
Wide open, Newsom narrowly first
Kalshi prices Someone else at 13% on Sep 26, 2026
Version 2: 17% (range 10% to 26%) · Kalshi 13%
Evidence cutoff Oct 12, 2026 · published Oct 12, 2026 · Wide open, Newsom narrowly first
Every contender, the odds, and the record on paper. Record facts are sourced; we forecast who is most likely to win, not who should.
Any candidate not listed, including Mark Kelly, J.B. Pritzker, Wes Moore, Gretchen Whitmer, Cory Booker, Chris Murphy, Ro Khanna, Rahm Emanuel or James Talarico
27%
The caseNo Democrat polls above 30 percent in the averages, and early Democratic poll leaders won only half of the open contests Pew studied from 1960 to 2004.
The riskCandidates outside the top tier start far behind on money and name recognition in a race likely to be decided by the six early states.
Governor of California
22 years in high office
17%
The caseHe has taken the most concrete steps toward a campaign of any major Democrat, including an appearance in first-in-the-nation South Carolina, and runs second in nearly every national poll behind a candidate who may not run.
The riskHe has tied his own decision to Harris's, and California's record on cost of living gives rivals an easy line of attack in a primary about affordability.
U.S. Representative, New York's 14th District
7 years in high office · elections 0 won, 0 lost
14%
The caseShe has the largest small-donor and volunteer base in the party, a progressive lane that is winning Senate primaries in 2026, and no incumbent-style record to defend.
The riskShe says she will choose between a Senate race and a presidential run after the midterms, and many primary voters doubt a House member from the left can win a general election.
Former Vice President of the United States
21 years in high office · elections 0 won, 1 lost
12%
The caseShe leads most national polls on name recognition and loyalty among Black Democrats, who will cast many of the first votes in South Carolina.
The riskShe has not decided whether to run, and parties rarely renominate a candidate who lost the previous general election; prediction markets price her far below her poll standing.
U.S. Senator from Georgia
5 years in high office · elections 0 won, 1 lost
10%
The caseTraders have made him the market favorite on the idea that a big reelection win in a state Trump carried would make him the party's most electable option.
The riskHe has flatly said he is not running in 2028 and first has to win his own Senate race in November.
Former U.S. Secretary of Transportation
12 years in high office
8%
The caseHe leads some national and New Hampshire polls and posts the strongest general election numbers in Emerson's testing, a pitch that matters to electability-minded primary voters.
The riskHe drew little support from Black voters in 2020, and the new calendar opens in South Carolina rather than Iowa, where he did best.
Governor of Pennsylvania
21 years in high office
7%
The caseA swing-state governor with a landslide win over a Trump-aligned opponent has the electability case many Democratic donors want.
The riskHe must first win reelection in November, and his national polling has stayed in single digits in most surveys.
Governor of Kentucky
10 years in high office
5%
The caseHe has won statewide races for attorney general and governor in a state Trump carries easily, and leaves office in December 2027, freeing him to campaign full time.
The riskHe starts with low name recognition outside Kentucky and competes for the same electability lane as Shapiro and Buttigieg.
28.2% vs 14.8%
Harris vs Newsom in the Pollsmax national primary average[3]
18% vs 16%
Buttigieg vs Newsom in Emerson's May 2026 national poll[1]
18% vs 17%
Ossoff vs Ocasio-Cortez on Kalshi when Ossoff took the lead in August[4]
4 of 8
open Democratic contests from 1960 to 2004 won by the early poll leader[18]
January 22, 2028
date of the first Democratic primary, in South Carolina[9]
Voters in South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia
The DNC's new calendar puts these six states first, starting with South Carolina on January 22, 2028. Their voters will see the most candidate visits, ads and organizing, and their results will winnow a field that could reach a dozen candidates.
Progressive voters
An Ocasio-Cortez nomination would put a Democratic Socialist agenda, including higher taxes on the wealthy and expanded public programs, at the top of the ticket. A Newsom, Harris, Shapiro or Beshear nomination would signal a more centrist platform.
Working families watching costs
Every leading contender is campaigning on affordability, but their tools differ: governors point to state records on housing and wages, while senators and House members point to federal bills. The nominee's choice frames the 2029 agenda if Democrats win.
Georgia and Pennsylvania voters
Jon Ossoff and Josh Shapiro are both on the November 2026 ballot at home. Their margins will be read as auditions, and a strong showing raises pressure on each to run in 2028.
Three lenses, always in this order. How the method works.
01
What do the decision makers need?
Every top contender is waiting on someone else. Harris tends to repeat that she is 'thinking about it' and is campaigning for midterm candidates in Michigan, Nevada and Georgia. Newsom has told CNN he would not run if Harris does, which makes his plans hostage to hers. Ocasio-Cortez says she will choose between a Senate seat and the White House after the midterms. Ossoff says he is not running at all. In a field like this, the first costly move after November, such as a committee, early-state staff or a book tour, will reveal more than any poll.
Democratic primary voters have one overriding need after two losses to Trump: a nominee they believe can win. That is why general election matchups, like Emerson's August tests in which Buttigieg was the only Democrat to lead both Vance and Rubio by five points, matter more than they usually would, and why a former nominee who lost faces a steeper climb than her poll numbers suggest.
02
What happened the last times this came up?
Pew's study of early primary polls found that Democratic poll leaders won only four of eight open contests from 1960 to 2004, far below the Republican rate. Recent history fits: Hillary Clinton led early in 2008 and lost to Barack Obama, while Joe Biden led early in 2020 and won. The reference class says the current poll leader, Harris, has roughly a coin-flip chance if she runs as the clear frontrunner; it does not account for the rarity of a losing nominee being chosen again.
The closest analogue is 2008: a party out of power, a well-known former candidate leading on name recognition, and younger senators with small national profiles. Clinton led national polls through 2007 and lost to a first-term senator who won Iowa. Where it breaks: the 2028 calendar starts in South Carolina, where Black voters are the majority of the Democratic electorate, which favors candidates with deep ties there over those who rely on Iowa-style organizing.
03
Base rate, adjustments, the number.
In our calculation, each number is the chance a candidate runs times the chance they win if they do. Harris: about 45 percent to run, given her public hesitancy and CNN's reporting that her former aides have been given no hint of her plans, times about 27 percent to win if she runs (the 50 percent poll-leader base rate, cut for being a losing former nominee and for a market that prices her at 7 cents). That gives about 12 percent. Newsom runs only if Harris does not, so about 52 percent to run, times about 33 percent to win, gives about 17 percent.
Ocasio-Cortez: about 45 percent to choose the presidential race over the Senate, times about 30 percent to win, gives about 14 percent. Ossoff: about 30 percent to reverse his pledge, times about 35 percent, gives about 10 percent. Buttigieg, Shapiro and Beshear are likelier to run but start lower, at 8, 7 and 5 percent. That leaves 27 percent for everyone else, more than any single named candidate, which is why we call the field wide open. Kalshi has Ossoff 17, Ocasio-Cortez 16, Newsom 13, Harris 7 and Buttigieg 5, so our field is similar in shape but lower on Ossoff and higher on Harris.
Why our frontrunner sits far below the 4 of 8 base rate: that rate is the win rate of the early poll leader in an open Democratic contest, conditional on running. The poll leader today is Harris, not Newsom, and our 12 percent for her equals roughly half of a 4 of 8 rate (cut for her status as a losing former nominee) times our estimate that she runs, as shown above. No candidate in this field is a declared frontrunner, so no single name should carry the reference class rate; the 27 percent for the rest of the field reflects that. The October 12 check found no announcement, committee filing or withdrawal by any named contender since September 26, so the numbers hold. The polling averages and market prices cited in this version are as of late September; we could not open the live pages on October 12.
What people spent versus what they said, and what was left out.
Costly signal
Newsom told CNN's Jake Tapper he would not run if Harris does.
It is a costly public promise because it lets Harris set his timeline, possibly into spring 2027. It avoids a fight with her base, but it also tells donors his path runs through her decision.
What was left out
CNN reported that Harris's former campaign aides have not been given any hint about her plans, and several major Democrats looking at running have not heard from her.
Candidates who plan to run usually lock down staff and donors early. The absence of that outreach is the strongest public sign that a third Harris campaign is less likely than her polling lead implies.
Sequencing
Ocasio-Cortez said she will decide between a Senate run and a White House run after the 2026 midterms.
Tying the decision to November lets her test whether progressive Senate nominees such as Abdul El-Sayed and Peggy Flanagan win. Strong progressive results would push her toward the presidential race.
Cheap talk
Ossoff told CNN he is not running for president in 2028 and has no interest in running.
Denials made while facing reelection are common and cheap to reverse later. Markets have ignored his, which is why we discount it only partly.
Our number after adjusting the base rate for what is different this time: 17%. It sits inside the historical interval.
Our 17% sits inside the historical interval: the forecast is consistent with how cases like this have gone.
Reference class: Pew Research Center's review of early primary polling: early Democratic poll leaders won four of eight open contests from 1960 to 2004, compared with six of seven for Republicans.
Base rate
50%
of open Democratic contests from 1960 to 2004 won by the early poll leader[18]
Pew Research Center's review of early primary polling: early Democratic poll leaders won four of eight open contests from 1960 to 2004, compared with six of seven for Republicans. (n = 8)
Obama beats early frontrunner Clinton (2008)
Alike: A party out of power, a famous former candidate leading national polls, and younger senators with thin national profiles.
Outcome: Barack Obama, a first-term senator, beat Hillary Clinton after winning Iowa.
Where it breaks: The 2028 calendar opens in South Carolina, not Iowa, and the early leader, Harris, has not said she is running.
Biden wins as early leader (2020)
Alike: A former vice president leading a crowded field on name recognition and Black voter support.
Outcome: Biden lost Iowa and New Hampshire, won South Carolina decisively and consolidated the field within days.
Where it breaks: Biden had won two national elections as vice president; Harris lost the most recent one as the nominee.
Stevenson renominated after a loss (1956)
Alike: A party renominating the candidate who lost the previous election.
Outcome: Adlai Stevenson won the nomination again and lost again to Eisenhower.
Where it breaks: Stevenson's nomination came through a convention-centered system; modern primaries give voters, not party leaders, the final say.
Every path we see, sized by probability. Paths where the frontrunner wins add up to 17%.
Ossoff, Buttigieg, Shapiro or Beshear wins an early state on electability and consolidates donors.
A crowded field fragments and a candidate such as Pritzker, Moore, Kelly or Whitmer builds a coalition from the early states.
Progressive Senate nominees win in November, she chooses the presidential race, and a divided field lets her win with pluralities.
Harris announces she will not run, Newsom launches in early 2027 and wins South Carolina or Nevada.
Harris enters, Newsom stands aside, and she carries South Carolina on the strength of Black voters.
Newsom enters a crowded field and wins through Super Tuesday on money and California delegates.
Harris announces she will not run
+10 points for NewsomHarris hires a campaign manager or files a committee
-10 points for Newsom, +10 for HarrisOssoff wins reelection by five points or more and stops repeating his pledge
-3 points for Newsom, +8 for OssoffOcasio-Cortez announces a Senate run
+3 points for Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez falls to near zeroThis is the dated September 26 Kalshi price; we could not open the live page for this update, and search results did not give two agreeing current figures. On that date Kalshi had Newsom at 13 cents, behind Ossoff at 17 and Ocasio-Cortez at 16, with Harris at 7 and Buttigieg at 5. We rank Newsom first because he is the likeliest of the top names to actually run, while Ossoff has publicly ruled out 2028. Both agree no one is better than about one in six.
Market price recorded September 26, 2026 from Kalshi. Analysis, not investment advice.
Resolves to the person formally nominated for president at the 2028 Democratic National Convention who accepts that nomination. If the nominee withdraws after the convention and the Democratic National Committee names a replacement, the question still resolves to the person nominated at the convention.
Closes: September 30, 2028. Judged by: The Democratic National Convention roll call and acceptance, as reported by the Associated Press and the Democratic National Committee
As of October 12, 2026, the race is wide open. Our forecast has California Gov. Gavin Newsom narrowly first at 17 percent, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 14, Kamala Harris at 12 and Jon Ossoff at 10, while candidates outside the top seven total 27 percent. Harris leads national polls but has not decided whether to run.
Kamala Harris has not decided. As of late September 2026 she says she is still thinking about it and is focusing on campaigning for Democrats in the midterms, with rallies in Michigan, Nevada and Georgia. She leads most national 2028 primary polls, at about 28 percent in the Pollsmax average as of late September, but prediction markets price her chances far lower.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has not announced a 2028 campaign. She told the New York Times in September 2026 that she will decide after the midterms whether to run for the Senate or for president, and that she is thinking about a presidential run personally. Prediction markets rank her among the top two Democrats, and we give her a 14 percent chance.
Jon Ossoff says no. In June 2026 he told CNN he is not running for president in 2028 and has no interest in running. He is seeking reelection to the Senate in Georgia in November 2026. Kalshi traders nonetheless made him the market favorite in late August, which is why we keep him in the field at 10 percent.
Under the calendar the Democratic National Committee adopted in August 2026, South Carolina votes first on January 22, 2028, followed by Nevada on February 1, New Hampshire on February 8, then New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia. Iowa lost its traditional first spot.
Every source is dated on or before the October 12, 2026 evidence cutoff. Nothing published later was used.
“Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg leads the Democratic primary with 18%, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16%”
“Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 10%, former Vice President Kamala Harris at 10%, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear at 9%”
“Kamala Harris currently leads in the 2028 Democratic primary with 28.2% support, followed by Gavin Newsom at 14.8%.”
“with Ossoff, 39, at 18 percent and Ocasio-Cortez, 36, at 17 percent. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, 58, is in third place at 13 percent.”
“Let me reiterate. I am not running for president in 2028. I have no interest in running for president in 2028.”
“Newsom, who has been taking more definitive steps toward a presidential campaign, told CNN's Jake Tapper that he wouldn't run if Harris did”
“The reality: She hasn't landed on either yes or no.”
“told the New York Times that she expects to decide whether to seek a Senate seat or pursue the White House after the 2026 midterm elections”
“with its Democratic primary scheduled for January 22, 2028. Nevada will go second on February 1, followed by New Hampshire on February 8.”
“Buttigieg is the only candidate to hold the same five-point lead against both Vance and Rubio”
“Gavin Newsom was elected as California’s 40th Governor on November 6, 2018.”
“has served since 2019 as the U.S. representative for New York's 14th congressional district”
“has served as the senior United States senator from Georgia since 2021”
“Electoral Vote Winner: 312 Main Opponent: 226”
“Buttigieg narrowly won the Iowa caucuses while placing second in the popular vote”
“Shapiro ran unopposed in the Democratic primary and defeated Republican nominee Doug Mastriano in the general election by a landslide”
“63rd Governor of Kentucky Incumbent Assumed office December 10, 2019”
“early Democratic poll leaders won four out of eight open contests between 1960 and 2004”
“California Gov. Gavin Newsom recently told CNN that he would not seek the nomination if Harris does.”
Published forecasts are never edited. When the evidence changes we publish a new version beside the old one, each locked with a sha256 hash of its full contents. When this question resolves it is scored in public on our track record.
| Version | Cutoff | Forecast | Lock hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| v2 | Oct 12, 2026 | Someone else 17% frontrunner | 22c3749770bb6b3b0b96bfe71208df45943e05ce82c4c13702f0cf39a4db5e3b |
| v1 | Sep 26, 2026 | Someone else 17% frontrunner | 95fa7ad9a2209d587a9de78e41b331914cd596e8bda45d9a977ff86e48c686ed |
Download every forecast: JSON or CSV (CC BY 4.0). Public sources only. Analysis, not investment or legal advice.
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?
18%
Very unlikely
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?
62%
Likely
Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?
8%
Very unlikely
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
55%
JD Vance