Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

As of September 26, 2026, we give Vice President JD Vance a 55 percent chance of winning the 2028 Republican nomination. He leads the national primary averages, holds the party's money machine as RNC finance chair, and his most plausible rival, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, says he has no plans to run and would back him.

Evidence cutoff September 26, 2026Version 1 of 1By the TPG Forecast Desk, edited by Frank Carrasco, PhD#83c0d8b3f8

Why it matters: The Republican nominee decides whether the party carries President Trump's agenda forward unchanged, recasts it, or moves away from it, which shapes tariffs, foreign policy and the courts well past 2029.

TPG forecast: most likely

JD Vance

55%

Vance favored, but the lead is soft

JD Vance55%
Marco Rubio18%
Someone else14%
Ron DeSantis5%
Ted Cruz4%

Kalshi prices JD Vance at 45% on Sep 26, 2026

Our odds over timeTPG forecastMarket

Version 1: 55% (range 42% to 68%) · Kalshi 45%

Evidence cutoff Sep 26, 2026 · published Sep 26, 2026 · Vance favored, but the lead is soft

This forecast is on its first version. Each update adds a point; old versions are never edited.

The field

Every contender, the odds, and the record on paper. Record facts are sourced; we forecast who is most likely to win, not who should.

01JD VanceRepublican

Vice President of the United States

4 years in high office · elections 3 won, 0 lost

55%

Elected office before the vice presidency: Elected U.S. senator from Ohio in 2022[9]
National primary polling average, late September 2026: 39.2%, first place[3]
Emerson national primary poll, May 2026: 36%, one point ahead of Rubio[1]
Party role: Republican National Committee finance chair[17]

The caseA sitting vice president with the president's reported private backing, the party's donor network and a lead in every national average is the default nominee, and every sitting vice president who sought an open nomination since 1960 won it.

The riskA heavy midterm loss tied to the administration's record could turn his closeness to Trump into a liability and open the door to a rival who looks more electable.

02Marco RubioRepublican

U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor

24 years in high office

18%

Senate service: Senator from Florida, 2011 to 2025[10]
Emerson national primary poll, May 2026: 35%, up from 20% in February[2]
2016 presidential bid: Suspended March 15, 2016 after losing Florida to Trump[11]

The caseHe polls about even with Vance in some surveys, runs better than Vance in Emerson's August general election tests, and holds two of the most visible jobs in the administration.

The riskHe has said repeatedly he has no plans to run and would be the first to back Vance, so he likely enters only if Vance falters or steps aside.

03Someone else

Any candidate not listed, including Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, Glenn Youngkin, Brian Kemp, Nikki Haley or a media figure

14%

The caseTwo years out, the field is not set; a crisis, a health event or a sharp break inside the Trump coalition could lift a candidate who is not on anyone's list today.

The riskWithout Trump's blessing, no candidate outside the top tier has shown the polling or money to compete with Vance.

04Ron DeSantisRepublican

Governor of Florida

14 years in high office

2022 Florida governor's race: Won by 19.4 points[12]
2024 presidential bid: Withdrew January 21, 2024 and endorsed Trump[13]
Emerson national primary poll, May 2026: 5%[1]

The caseHe has a national donor list, a record margin in Florida and is term limited in January 2027, which frees him to run a full campaign.

The riskHis 2024 campaign collapsed before New Hampshire, and many of his past donors have since moved into the Trump and Vance orbit.

05Ted CruzRepublican

U.S. Senator from Texas

18 years in high office

Senate service: Senator from Texas since 2013[14]
2016 presidential bid: Suspended after losing Indiana to Trump[19]

The caseHe finished second to Trump in 2016, keeps a large conservative media audience, and has traveled to Iowa while declining to rule out a 2028 run.

The riskPrimary voters shaped by the Trump era have rewarded loyalty to the president, and Cruz has no obvious lane that Vance does not already occupy.

06Donald Trump Jr.Republican

Executive and political surrogate; has never held public office

0 years in high office · elections 0 won, 0 lost

Political role: Campaign surrogate for his father and 2018 midterm candidates[20]
Relationship to the frontrunner: Described as very close to Vance[16]

The caseThe Trump name is the strongest brand in Republican primaries, and he would inherit his father's network instantly if he chose to run.

The riskHe is one of Vance's closest allies, which, as Fox News reported, would likely keep him out of the race.

The numbers behind the call

39.2% vs 19.8%

Vance vs Rubio in the Pollsmax national primary average[3]

36% vs 35%

Vance vs Rubio in Emerson's May 2026 national primary poll[1]

52% vs 20%

Vance vs Rubio in Emerson's February 2026 poll[2]

29 of 49

vice presidents in U.S. history who later sought a presidential nomination[8]

6 of 7

open Republican contests from 1960 to 2004 won by the early poll leader[18]

What it means for you

Voters in early primary states

If Vice President Vance clears the field early, Iowa and New Hampshire Republicans may see a short, lightly contested race. A Rubio entry or a crowded field would bring years of visits, ads and debates.

Businesses exposed to trade

A Vance nomination signals continuity with the current tariff approach. A nominee from the party's more traditional wing, such as Rubio or Cruz, would likely run on a mix of tariffs and trade deals, which changes the planning horizon for importers and exporters.

Americans following foreign policy

Vance has been identified with the restraint wing of the party and Rubio with its more interventionist wing. Which one leads the ticket shapes what the party promises on Iran, Ukraine and allies for 2029.

Donors and grassroots volunteers

An early consolidation pulls money and staff behind one campaign by mid 2027. A contested race splits both, and small donors in particular get courted by several camps at once.

The read

Three lenses, always in this order. How the method works.

Psychology

What do the decision makers need?

Vance needs two things: Trump's continued favor and a way to own the administration's record without being buried by it. He has said he will talk to Trump about running after the November midterms, which keeps him in the role of loyal deputy rather than impatient heir. Public reporting says Trump told donors privately that 'we need to elect JD,' but in public he has declined to pick between Vance and Rubio, a pattern that keeps both men dependent on him.

Rubio's incentives run the other way. His public line since May has been that he would be the first to sign up for a Vance campaign, and on September 9 he again said he has no plans to run. The audience cost of breaking that promise is high while Vance is healthy and favored, so the realistic Rubio path is one where Vance stumbles, not one where Rubio challenges him head on. Cruz and Rick Scott, who have been visiting Iowa and New Hampshire, have lower costs to test the waters because they have made no such pledge.

History

What happened the last times this came up?

The reference class is sitting vice presidents who sought an open nomination: Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Al Gore in 2000. All four won their party's nomination. A second class points the same way: Pew found that early Republican poll leaders won six of seven open contests from 1960 to 2004. Republican primaries have historically rewarded the person next in line.

The closest analogue is Bush in 1988, a loyal vice president to a popular two-term president who beat a senator (Bob Dole) and a media figure (Pat Robertson). Where it breaks: Reagan was popular in 1987, while Trump's approval sits near 40 percent in Emerson's August poll and Republicans face a hostile midterm. Gore 2000 is the partial warning: he won the nomination easily but carried the baggage of the administration into November. The history says a sitting vice president rarely loses the nomination; it says less about one whose lead fell from 32 points to one point in three months, as Vance's did in Emerson's polling between February and May.

Statistics

Base rate, adjustments, the number.

Start from the two base rates: sitting vice presidents who ran are 4 for 4 since 1960, and early Republican poll leaders are 6 for 7 in Pew's study. In our calculation, blending those gives roughly 85 percent for a Vance who runs as the clear frontrunner. Then adjust. First, he has not declared and says the decision comes after the midterms; we put the chance he runs at about 88 percent. Second, his lead is softer than the base-rate cases: the Pollsmax average has him at 39.2 percent to Rubio's 19.8 percent, but Emerson had it 36 to 35 in May. That pulls his win chance, given he runs, down to about 63 percent.

Our calculation: 0.88 times 0.63 is about 0.55. Kalshi prices Vance at 45 cents, Rubio at 20 and a long tail of Trump family members, Carlson and Cruz at 1 to 4 cents each. We are 10 points above the market on Vance because the market gives weight to Rubio entering despite his repeated statements, and to Trump himself, whom the 22nd Amendment bars from a third term. Our range of 42 to 68 percent reflects how much the midterm result could move this.

Between the lines

What people spent versus what they said, and what was left out.

Costly signal

Rubio skipped the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, where Vance and Cruz spoke, and flew to South America instead, the same week he said he had no plans to run.

Staying off the stage where 2028 hopefuls audition is a costly way to show deference to Vance. It keeps the peace now, but it also preserves his standing as the party's fallback if Vance is damaged.

Sequencing

Vance has said he will talk to Trump about 2028 only after the November midterms.

Sequencing the decision after the midterms keeps the president in the role of kingmaker and avoids pinning a midterm loss on a declared candidate. It also means the first real test of his strength comes in winter 2026.

Personnel move

Trump installed Vance as Republican National Committee finance chair.

The finance chair meets every major donor in the party during a midterm cycle. That is the most valuable early asset in a nomination race, and it is not a job a president gives to someone he plans to pass over.

Cheap talk

Cruz has traveled to Iowa without ruling out a run, and Rick Scott told a New Hampshire dinner that being president is the best job while insisting he is not running.

Early-state visits and talk cost little. Until a rival hires staff in Iowa or New Hampshire or forms a committee, treat these as positioning for a Vance stumble, not a challenge.

History vs the market vs our call

Our number after adjusting the base rate for what is different this time: 55%. It sits inside the historical interval.

Check our statistics yourself

Reference class: 4 of 4 (100%)
Exact 95% CI (Clopper-Pearson): 39.8 to 100.0%
Bayesian 95% credible (uniform prior): 47.8 to 99.5%
Binomial test of our 55%: p = 0.133

Our 55% sits inside the historical interval: the forecast is consistent with how cases like this have gone.

Reproduce in JASP (free, jasp-stats.org)

Download base-rate.csv (one row per case in the reference class, outcome 1 or 0) and open it in JASP.
Frequencies, then Binomial Test. Variable: outcome. Test value: 0.55. Tick Confidence interval. JASP reports the same p value and Clopper-Pearson interval shown here.
Frequencies, then Bayesian Binomial Test, with a Beta(1, 1) prior. The posterior 95% credible interval matches ours.

Reference class: Our calculation from Pew Research Center's history of vice presidents who sought the presidency: every sitting vice president who actively sought an open nomination from 1960 to 2000 won it. Pew separately found early Republican poll leaders won six of seven open contests from 1960 to 2004.

Base rate

100%

of sitting vice presidents who sought an open nomination since 1960 won it (Nixon, Humphrey, Bush, Gore)[8][18]

Our calculation from Pew Research Center's history of vice presidents who sought the presidency: every sitting vice president who actively sought an open nomination from 1960 to 2000 won it. Pew separately found early Republican poll leaders won six of seven open contests from 1960 to 2004. (n = 4)

Closest historical parallels

George H.W. Bush succeeds Reagan (1988)
Alike: A loyal vice president to a two-term Republican president, facing a senator and an insurgent media figure.
Outcome: Bush lost Iowa but won New Hampshire and swept the South to take the nomination.
Where it breaks: Reagan was popular going into 1988; Trump's approval is near 40 percent and the party faces a difficult midterm.
Al Gore succeeds Clinton (2000)
Alike: A sitting vice president with the party's donor base, facing a single serious challenger.
Outcome: Gore beat Bill Bradley in every primary and caucus.
Where it breaks: Gore had no rival inside the administration; Vance's most plausible rival is the sitting secretary of state.
Marco Rubio's first run (2016)
Alike: Rubio as the establishment-friendly Republican in a primary dominated by the Trump coalition.
Outcome: He suspended his campaign after losing his home state of Florida to Trump.
Where it breaks: In 2016 Rubio ran against Trump; in 2028 he would be running as a member of Trump's own cabinet.

How it could play out

Every path we see, sized by probability. Paths where the frontrunner wins add up to 55%.

Vance consolidates early Yes35%
Trump signals support after the midterms, Rubio stays out, and Vance wins Iowa and New Hampshire with no serious rival.
Someone outside the top two wins No27%
Vance does not run or collapses, the field fragments, and DeSantis, Cruz, a Trump family member or a newcomer wins the delegate race.
Vance survives a contested primary Yes20%
Cruz, DeSantis or another rival runs on electability after a bad midterm, but Vance wins on Trump's backing and loyalty among primary voters.
Rubio enters and wins No18%
A heavy midterm loss or a Vance stumble leads Trump and donors to ask Rubio to run, and he wins older Republican voters decisively.

What would change our number

↑

Trump publicly endorses Vance after the midterms

+15 points for Vance

↓

Rubio forms a committee or hires Iowa or New Hampshire staff

-12 points for Vance, +10 for Rubio

↓

Republicans lose both chambers by wide margins and party leaders publicly blame the administration's agenda

-6 points for Vance

↑

Vance leads Rubio by 20 points or more in two quality national primary polls in early 2027

+6 points for Vance

TPG 55% vs Kalshi 45%

Kalshi has Vance at 45 cents, Rubio at 20, DeSantis near 4, Donald Trump Jr. near 3 and Tucker Carlson near 3. We agree on the order but are 10 points higher on Vance: the market pays for a Rubio entry he keeps disclaiming and for long shots such as Trump himself, whom the Constitution bars from a third term.

Market price recorded September 26, 2026 from Kalshi. Analysis, not investment advice.

How this question resolves

Resolves to the person formally nominated for president at the 2028 Republican National Convention who accepts that nomination. If the nominee withdraws after the convention and the Republican National Committee names a replacement, the question still resolves to the person nominated at the convention.

Closes: September 30, 2028. Judged by: The Republican National Convention roll call and acceptance, as reported by the Associated Press and the Republican National Committee

Questions people ask

Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee?

As of September 26, 2026, Vice President JD Vance is the most likely 2028 Republican nominee, with a 55 percent chance in our forecast. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is second at 18 percent. Vance leads the national primary averages and has the party's fundraising network, but his lead over Rubio has narrowed in some 2026 polls and he has not formally declared.

Is JD Vance running for president in 2028?

JD Vance has not announced a 2028 campaign. He has said he will talk with President Trump about running after the November 2026 midterm elections. He serves as the Republican National Committee's finance chair and leads national primary polling averages, which is why most observers and prediction markets treat him as the likely frontrunner if he runs.

Is Marco Rubio running for president in 2028?

Marco Rubio says he has no plans to run in 2028. On September 9, 2026, he said he does not know what the future holds but has no plans at this time, and in May he said he would be the first to support JD Vance if Vance runs. He has not ruled a run out, which is why we still give him an 18 percent chance.

Can Trump run for a third term in 2028?

No. The 22nd Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice, and Donald Trump won in 2016 and 2024. Prediction markets still list him at a price of about 2 cents for the Republican nomination, which reflects speculation rather than a legal path. Our forecast includes him only within the Someone else row.

Sources

Every source is dated on or before the September 26, 2026 evidence cutoff. Nothing published later was used.

[1]May 2026 National Poll: Rubio Rises as 2028 Contender, Buttigieg, Newsom Top Democratic List. Emerson College Polling, May 28, 2026.
“36% support Vance, 35% Rubio, while 5% support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, respectively.”
[2]May 2026 National Poll: Rubio Rises as 2028 Contender, Buttigieg, Newsom Top Democratic List. Emerson College Polling, May 28, 2026.
“The Republican primary has shifted significantly since February, when 52% supported Vance and 20% Rubio”
[3]2028 Republican Primary Polling Average. Pollsmax, Sep 26, 2026.
“JD Vance currently leads in the 2028 Republican primary with 39.2% support, followed by Marco Rubio at 19.8%.”
[4]Marco Rubio Says He Has No Plans to Run in 2028, Points to JD Vance. Breitbart News, Sep 9, 2026.
“I don't know what the future holds, but I have no plans at this time”
[5]Marco Rubio Says He Has No Plans to Run in 2028, Points to JD Vance. Breitbart News, Sep 9, 2026.
“Trump told donors during a private Oval Office conversation that he wants Vance to win in 2028”
[6]Marco Rubio Says He Has No Plans to Run in 2028, Points to JD Vance. Breitbart News, Sep 9, 2026.
“Rubio said in May that he would be the first person to sign up and support Vice President JD Vance should Vance seek the nomination”
[7]Trump declines to take sides between Vance, Rubio in 2028 successor debate. Reuters via Yahoo News, Feb 5, 2026.
“has said he will talk to Trump about the possibility of running after the November midterm elections”
[8]Most U.S. vice presidents in recent decades have sought the presidency, but relatively few have won. Pew Research Center, Aug 1, 2024.
“29 of the 49 people who have served as vice president since the country's founding have gone on to formally seek a party's presidential nomination”
[9]JD Vance, Vice President of the United States. The White House, Sep 26, 2026.
“In 2022, JD Vance took his commitment to his country to the national stage and was elected to the U.S. Senate.”
[10]Marco Rubio, Secretary of State. U.S. Department of State, Sep 26, 2026.
“In 2010, he won a seat in the U.S. Senate. He served as U.S. Senator until 2025.”
[11]Marco Rubio. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“He suspended his campaign for the presidency on March 15, 2016, after losing to Donald Trump in the Florida Republican primary”
[12]Ron DeSantis. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“he defeated former governor Charlie Crist by 19.4%, the largest margin for either party in a gubernatorial race since 1982”
[13]Ron DeSantis. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“On January 21, 2024, he withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Trump.”
[14]Ted Cruz. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“serving since 2013 as the junior United States Senator from Texas”
[15]Republicans start making moves to challenge JD Vance for 2028 nomination. The Washington Post, Sep 22, 2026.
“Vice President JD Vance is leading polls of the nascent 2028 GOP presidential primary field”
[16]Vance, Cruz head to Iowa on 2026 missions as 2028 GOP race to succeed Trump heats up. Fox News, May 1, 2026.
“the younger Trump is very close to Vance, which would likely prevent him from making any White House bid”
[17]As Vance locks down early 2028 support, would-be GOP rivals look for ways to stand out. NBC News, Jan 14, 2026.
“he is expected to raise money and campaign across the country for GOP candidates in this year”
[18]How Reliable Are the Early Presidential Polls?. Pew Research Center, Feb 14, 2007.
“In seven open Republican contests since 1960, the early front-runners held on to win the party nod six times.”
[19]Ted Cruz. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“Shortly after losing overwhelmingly to Trump in the Indiana primary on May 3, Cruz suspended his campaign.”
[20]Donald Trump Jr.. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“Trump campaigned for several Republicans during the 2018 midterm elections”
[21]August 2026 National Poll: Democrats Lead Congressional Ballot by Eight Points; Rubio Outperforms Vance on 2028 Ballot Tests. Emerson College Polling, Aug 20, 2026.
“Rubio performs better than Vance on multiple ballot tests”

Version history and integrity

Published forecasts are never edited. When the evidence changes we publish a new version beside the old one, each locked with a sha256 hash of its full contents. When this question resolves it is scored in public on our track record.

Version	Cutoff	Forecast	Lock hash
v1	Sep 26, 2026	JD Vance 55% frontrunner	83c0d8b3f828c35d0d84bb5faac3fdf83534ac6e4ce12c7e9faaf400428cba17

Download every forecast: JSON or CSV (CC BY 4.0). Public sources only. Analysis, not investment or legal advice.

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