Question 1

Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?

Accepted Answer

We now put the chance the Fed raises rates on October 28, 2026 at 30%, up from 18%, as of October 15. September CPI rose 3.7% over the year with core prices up 0.3% for the month, a tenth above forecasts, and producer prices jumped 1.3%. Officials still describe one more hike this year without naming a meeting, and markets favor December.

Question 2

Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?

Accepted Answer

We now put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 10%, down from 14%, as of October 15. AAA put the average at $4.3344 on October 15, about 17 cents below the line with under three weeks left, and crude has stayed inside its recent range despite new attacks on shipping.

Question 3

Will the Fed raise interest rates at its December 8-9, 2026 meeting?

Accepted Answer

We put the chance the Fed raises rates at its December 8-9, 2026 meeting at 75%, as of October 15, below Kalshi's 81% and CME FedWatch's roughly 90%. Hot September inflation keeps one more hike on track, but if the Fed hikes on October 28, a second straight hike in December is far from certain.

Question 4

Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?

Accepted Answer

We now put the chance that annual CPI inflation reads 4.0% or higher in the November 2026 report at 33%, down from 45%, as of October 12. The biggest reason: AAA put gasoline at $4.36 on October 8, down from $4.48 in late September, and Trump pledged no strikes on Iran before the midterms, removing the main oil shock path.

Question 5

Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?

Accepted Answer

We now estimate a 16 percent chance that a new five-year farm bill becomes law by December 31, 2026, as of October 12, down a point. The Senate bill has not reached the floor, no SNAP cost-shift compromise has been announced, and an expected Democratic House win lowers lame duck urgency, so another extension remains likeliest.

Question 6

Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?

Accepted Answer

We now put the chance the CLARITY Act becomes law by December 31, 2026 at 7 percent, up 1 point after tightening our reference class, as of our October 12 cutoff. The Senate's September 15 vote was effectively 50 to 49 once a procedural switch is counted, still 10 short of 60, and no ethics deal has surfaced.

Question 7

Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?

Accepted Answer

We now estimate a 63 percent chance the U.S. or Israel strikes Iranian soil by December 31, 2026, up from 62 percent, as of October 15. Iran is attacking more ships to keep oil prices high before the midterms, and Trump promised "a number" on Iran, but he also says he promised Tehran restraint on its leaders.

Question	Odds	Closes
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?	30% Unlikely	Oct 28, 2026
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?	10% Very unlikely	Resolved NO
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its December 8-9, 2026 meeting?	75% Likely	Dec 9, 2026
Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?	33% Unlikely	Dec 10, 2026
Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?	16% Very unlikely	Dec 31, 2026
Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?	7% Remote	Dec 31, 2026
Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?	63% Likely	Dec 31, 2026

Economy and the Fed: forecasts and odds

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