Interest rates, inflation, recession risk and the political decisions behind them.
We now put the chance the Fed raises rates on October 28, 2026 at 18%, down from 68%, as of October 12. The biggest reason: September payrolls rose only 29,000 and New York Fed President John Williams said there is no need for urgency. September CPI on October 14 is the last chance to revive an October hike.
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?
18%
Very unlikely
We now put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 14%, down from 33%, as of October 12. AAA put the average at $4.36 on October 8, and Trump pledged no strikes on Iran before the midterms, leaving a hurricane or supply disruption as the main path back up.
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
14%
Very unlikely
We now put the chance that annual CPI inflation reads 4.0% or higher in the November 2026 report at 33%, down from 45%, as of October 12. The biggest reason: AAA put gasoline at $4.36 on October 8, down from $4.48 in late September, and Trump pledged no strikes on Iran before the midterms, removing the main oil shock path.
Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?
33%
Unlikely
We now estimate a 16 percent chance that a new five-year farm bill becomes law by December 31, 2026, as of October 12, down a point. The Senate bill has not reached the floor, no SNAP cost-shift compromise has been announced, and an expected Democratic House win lowers lame duck urgency, so another extension remains likeliest.
Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?
16%
Very unlikely
We now put the chance the CLARITY Act becomes law by December 31, 2026 at 7 percent, up 1 point after tightening our reference class, as of our October 12 cutoff. The Senate's September 15 vote was effectively 50 to 49 once a procedural switch is counted, still 10 short of 60, and no ethics deal has surfaced.
Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?
7%
Remote
We now estimate a 62 percent chance the U.S. or Israel strikes Iranian soil by December 31, 2026, down from 68 percent, as of October 12. Trump pledged on October 8 not to attack Iran before the November 3 midterms, taking three weeks off the table, but the Pentagon has drafted strike options and the blockade continues.
Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?
62%
Likely
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.