Interest rates, inflation, recession risk and the political decisions behind them.
We put the chance the Fed raises rates on October 28, 2026 at 68%, as of September 26. The biggest reason: 16 of 18 officials project another hike this year and a voting governor says more is needed. We sit below the 77.5% futures price because the same hike could come in December, after the midterms.
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?
68%
Likely
We put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 33%, as of September 26. Gas sits at $4.49 and Trump rejected Iran's plan to reopen Hormuz, but in 25 of the last 36 years pump prices fell between late September and early November.
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
33%
Unlikely
We put the chance that annual CPI inflation reads 4.0% or higher in the November 2026 report, due December 10, at 45%, as of September 26. Gasoline near $4.49 and a rejected Iran peace plan push toward 4%, but core inflation is only 2.4% and fall gas prices usually ease, leaving this a near coin flip.
Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?
45%
Toss-up
We estimate a 17 percent chance that a new five-year farm bill becomes law by December 31, 2026. The biggest obstacle is the Senate: the bill cleared committee on a 12 to 11 party-line vote, and it needs at least seven Democrats to reach 60 votes while the parties remain split over SNAP cost shifts to states.
Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?
17%
Very unlikely
We put the chance the CLARITY Act becomes law by December 31, 2026 at 6 percent. The Senate's September 15 attempt to start debate failed 49 to 50, short of even a majority, with every Democrat and three Republicans opposed. Reviving it needs at least 10 more votes during a crowded post-election lame duck.
Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?
6%
Remote
We estimate a 68 percent chance the U.S. or Israel strikes Iranian soil again by December 31, 2026. The U.S. has not struck Iran ashore since early September and talks restarted, but the blockade, the closed strait and Trump's reported rejection of Iran's ceasefire plan leave the triggers for renewed strikes in place.
Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?
68%
Likely
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.