Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?

The sponsors, Tim Scott, John Boozman and Cynthia Lummis, forced a vote on a 'last, best and final' draft released two days earlier. Pushing a vote you expect to lose is often about assigning blame before an election rather than passing a law. Lummis warned colleagues not to hand the future to someone else, which is the language of a closing argument, not of a deal about to close.

The hardest issue is one no negotiator can trade away: ethics language aimed at senior officials' crypto businesses, which reaches the President's family ventures. Democrats cannot be seen voting for a bill without it, and the White House cannot be seen accepting limits aimed at the President. Once the House changes hands, as many in the industry expect, Democrats also gain from waiting: they would have a say over any bill in 2027, while their Senate Banking leader could be a longtime crypto skeptic.

Reference class: high-profile bills whose Senate cloture effort failed in the final months of a Congress and then got a lame-duck revival. Our list: Don't Ask, Don't Tell repeal (2010, enacted December 22, 2010), the DREAM Act (2010, failed again in December), the Paycheck Fairness Act (2010, failed), the Cybersecurity Act of 2012 (failed again in November), Keystone XL approval (2014, failed), the USA FREEDOM Act (2014, failed, passed in the next Congress) and the 2024 child tax credit and business tax bill (failed, not revived). That is 1 success in 7, about 14 percent.

Closest analogue: Don't Ask, Don't Tell repeal, the lone success. Where it breaks: repeal had majority support at every step and was split into a clean standalone bill that could draw a handful of Republicans. CLARITY failed to win even a simple majority, three Republicans voted no on the merits, and its core dispute (ethics tied to the sitting President) cannot be split off without losing Democrats. The GENIUS Act, the 2025 stablecoin law, is the best counterexample: its first cloture vote failed, and it still became law after quick changes. But that recovery came in the spring of an off year, not in the last weeks of a Congress.

Start from the revival base rate of about 14 percent (1 of 7).

Subtract 6 points because the bill fell short of a simple majority, unlike the successful analogue, and needs at least 10 more senators. Subtract 4 points because even a Senate win is not enough: the House must then pass the Senate's 600-plus-page text in the same few December weeks, when appropriations, the defense bill and a possible war funding package compete for floor time.

Add 2 points for the GENIUS Act precedent: the 2025 stablecoin bill lost its first cloture vote 48 to 49 and passed 11 days later once Democrats won changes, so a failed first vote on crypto legislation is not always final.

14 minus 6 minus 4 plus 2 lands at 6 percent, band 2 to 12 percent. Kalshi prices 'Before Jan 1, 2027' at about 8 cents. We are 2 points lower because we see no scheduled vote and no public movement on the ethics text since September 15.