Which bills pass, which stall, and what each one changes for the people it touches.
We estimate a 17 percent chance that a new five-year farm bill becomes law by December 31, 2026. The biggest obstacle is the Senate: the bill cleared committee on a 12 to 11 party-line vote, and it needs at least seven Democrats to reach 60 votes while the parties remain split over SNAP cost shifts to states.
Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?
17%
Very unlikely
As of September 26, 2026, we give Democrat James Talarico a 52 percent chance of beating Republican Ken Paxton for the Texas Senate seat. Recent polls are within one point and Paxton is winning only 84 percent of Republicans, but Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988 and Democrats have trailed their polls there before.
Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
52%
Toss-up
We put the chance the CLARITY Act becomes law by December 31, 2026 at 6 percent. The Senate's September 15 attempt to start debate failed 49 to 50, short of even a majority, with every Democrat and three Republicans opposed. Reviving it needs at least 10 more votes during a crowded post-election lame duck.
Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?
6%
Remote
We estimate a 75 percent chance the FY2027 defense authorization bill becomes law by December 31, 2026. The main reason: Congress has enacted an NDAA 65 years in a row, usually in December. The main risk: Senate Democrats blocked it 50 to 46 in July over the Iran war, and it has not moved since.
Will the FY2027 defense bill (NDAA) become law by December 31, 2026?
75%
Likely
We put the odds of a federal government shutdown starting between December 12 and December 31, 2026 at 24 percent. Funding runs out December 11, after the midterms. The biggest reason it probably holds: another short stopgap into 2027 is cheap for both parties, and this Congress just passed one 370 to 48.
Will the U.S. government shut down in December 2026, when the current stopgap expires?
24%
Unlikely
As of September 26, 2026, we put the chance that Democrats win the House at 88 percent. They need a net gain of only three seats, lead the generic ballot by about eight points, and face a president near 33 percent approval. New Republican-drawn maps are the main reason this is not higher.
Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?
88%
Very likely
As of September 26, 2026, we give Republicans a 42 percent chance of keeping the Senate. They hold 53 seats, so Democrats must net four, but a roughly eight point Democratic national environment has put Republican seats in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska and Texas at real risk, while Democrats look safe in Georgia.
Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
42%
Toss-up
As of September 26, 2026, Chuck Schumer is narrowly the most likely Senate Majority Leader in January 2027, at 40 percent, just ahead of John Thune at 39. Who leads depends mostly on which party wins the Senate, which our desk puts at 58 percent Democratic, and on whether Democrats keep Schumer despite growing opposition.
Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
40%
Chuck Schumer
As of September 26, 2026, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has an 84 percent chance of being elected Speaker when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats, and a Democratic majority would almost certainly elect its leader; Speaker Mike Johnson's path requires Republicans to hold the House.
Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
84%
Hakeem Jeffries
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.