Question 1

Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?

Accepted Answer

We now estimate a 16 percent chance that a new five-year farm bill becomes law by December 31, 2026, as of October 12, down a point. The Senate bill has not reached the floor, no SNAP cost-shift compromise has been announced, and an expected Democratic House win lowers lame duck urgency, so another extension remains likeliest.

Question 2

Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?

Accepted Answer

As of October 15, 2026, we give Democrat James Talarico a 54 percent chance of beating Republican Ken Paxton, down from 59. Four polls released this week show the race tightening, from a tie to a four-point Talarico lead, and the UT/Texas Politics Project poll finds 92 percent of Republican likely voters now back Paxton.

Question 3

Will Susan Collins win reelection in the 2026 Maine Senate race against Troy Jackson?

Accepted Answer

As of October 15, 2026, we give Sen. Susan Collins a 42 percent chance of winning a sixth term. Troy Jackson leads most recent polls by two to five points, but Collins won by nearly 9 in 2020 after trailing in polls for most of that cycle, so her record keeps this a genuine Toss Up.

Question 4

Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?

Accepted Answer

We now put the chance the CLARITY Act becomes law by December 31, 2026 at 7 percent, up 1 point after tightening our reference class, as of our October 12 cutoff. The Senate's September 15 vote was effectively 50 to 49 once a procedural switch is counted, still 10 short of 60, and no ethics deal has surfaced.

Question 5

Will the FY2027 defense bill (NDAA) become law by December 31, 2026?

Accepted Answer

No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: we still estimate a 75 percent chance the FY2027 defense authorization bill becomes law by December 31, 2026. The Senate has not revisited its failed July vote and Congress is away until after the election, so the outcome still rests on a compressed December lame duck.

Question 6

Will the U.S. government shut down in December 2026, when the current stopgap expires?

Accepted Answer

We now put the chance of a federal shutdown starting between December 12 and December 31, 2026 at 27 percent, up from 24, as of our October 12 cutoff. Traders have priced more risk and our window is wider than theirs, but another cheap short stopgap into 2027 remains the likeliest exit when Congress returns.

Question 7

Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?

Accepted Answer

As of October 15, 2026, we put the chance that Democrats win the House at 92 percent, up from 91. Republican groups have begun abandoning endangered incumbents, and senior Republicans told Politico the House had all but slipped away. Much of that retreat reflects polling we had already priced, so the move is small; a polling miss is the main risk.

Question 8

Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?

Accepted Answer

As of October 15, 2026, we give Republicans a 34 percent chance of keeping the Senate, up from 33. Texas tightened, with our Talarico forecast down to 54 percent, and Iowa is a true Toss Up rather than a Democratic lean, while Roy Cooper leads by 14 in North Carolina and Troy Jackson still leads narrowly in Maine.

Question 9

Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?

Accepted Answer

As of October 15, 2026, Chuck Schumer is the most likely Senate Majority Leader in January 2027, at 48 percent, up from 46, ahead of John Thune at 32. Our Senate forecast gives Democrats a 66 percent chance of control, and Axios reports Schumer is more than favored to win the caucus secret ballot.

Question 10

Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?

Accepted Answer

As of October 15, 2026, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has an 87 percent chance of being elected Speaker in January 2027, up from 86. Our House forecast now gives Democrats 92 percent after Republican groups began abandoning endangered seats, and a new majority almost always elects its leader; Mike Johnson needs a Republican hold.

Question	Odds	Closes
Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?	16% Very unlikely	Dec 31, 2026
Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?	54% Toss-up	Resolved YES
Will Susan Collins win reelection in the 2026 Maine Senate race against Troy Jackson?	42% Toss-up	Resolved NO
Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?	7% Remote	Dec 31, 2026
Will the FY2027 defense bill (NDAA) become law by December 31, 2026?	75% Likely	Dec 31, 2026
Will the U.S. government shut down in December 2026, when the current stopgap expires?	27% Unlikely	Dec 31, 2026
Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?	92% Very likely	Resolved YES
Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?	34% Unlikely	Resolved NO
Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?	48% Toss-up	Jan 31, 2027
Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?	87% Very likely	Jan 31, 2027

Congress and legislation: forecasts and odds

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