Question 1

Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?

Accepted Answer

We now estimate a 16 percent chance that a new five-year farm bill becomes law by December 31, 2026, as of October 12, down a point. The Senate bill has not reached the floor, no SNAP cost-shift compromise has been announced, and an expected Democratic House win lowers lame duck urgency, so another extension remains likeliest.

Question 2

Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?

Accepted Answer

As of October 12, 2026, we give Democrat James Talarico a 59 percent chance of beating Republican Ken Paxton, up from 52. All three polls fielded since late September, including the New York Times and Siena, show Talarico ahead by two to six points, but Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.

Question 3

Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?

Accepted Answer

We now put the chance the CLARITY Act becomes law by December 31, 2026 at 7 percent, up 1 point after tightening our reference class, as of our October 12 cutoff. The Senate's September 15 vote was effectively 50 to 49 once a procedural switch is counted, still 10 short of 60, and no ethics deal has surfaced.

Question 4

Will the FY2027 defense bill (NDAA) become law by December 31, 2026?

Accepted Answer

No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: we still estimate a 75 percent chance the FY2027 defense authorization bill becomes law by December 31, 2026. The Senate has not revisited its failed July vote and Congress is away until after the election, so the outcome still rests on a compressed December lame duck.

Question 5

Will the U.S. government shut down in December 2026, when the current stopgap expires?

Accepted Answer

We now put the chance of a federal shutdown starting between December 12 and December 31, 2026 at 27 percent, up from 24, as of our October 12 cutoff. Traders have priced more risk and our window is wider than theirs, but another cheap short stopgap into 2027 remains the likeliest exit when Congress returns.

Question 6

Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?

Accepted Answer

As of October 12, 2026, we put the chance that Democrats win the House at 91 percent, up from 88. The Cook Political Report moved 18 House races toward Democrats in its October update, as Axios reported on October 9, tripping our signpost and pointing to a gain well past the three seats needed. Redrawn maps remain the main risk.

Question 7

Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?

Accepted Answer

As of October 12, 2026, we give Republicans a 33 percent chance of keeping the Senate, down from 42. New York Times/Siena polls released October 3 showed Democrats ahead in Alaska, Texas and Ohio, later October polls kept Talarico and Brown ahead by four or more, and Maine polls mostly favor Troy Jackson.

Question 8

Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?

Accepted Answer

As of October 12, 2026, Chuck Schumer is the most likely Senate Majority Leader in January 2027, at 46 percent, ahead of John Thune at 31. Our Senate forecast now gives Democrats a 67 percent chance of control after October polls showed them ahead in Alaska, Texas and Ohio, though Schumer still faces opposition from several Democratic nominees.

Question 9

Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?

Accepted Answer

As of October 12, 2026, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has an 86 percent chance of being elected Speaker in January 2027, up from 84. Our House forecast now gives Democrats 91 percent after Cook moved 18 races their way, and a new majority almost always elects its leader; Mike Johnson needs a Republican hold.

Question	Odds	Closes
Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?	16% Very unlikely	Dec 31, 2026
Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?	59% Toss-up	Dec 31, 2026
Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?	7% Remote	Dec 31, 2026
Will the FY2027 defense bill (NDAA) become law by December 31, 2026?	75% Likely	Dec 31, 2026
Will the U.S. government shut down in December 2026, when the current stopgap expires?	27% Unlikely	Dec 31, 2026
Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?	91% Very likely	Jan 3, 2027
Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?	33% Unlikely	Jan 3, 2027
Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?	46% Toss-up	Jan 31, 2027
Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?	86% Very likely	Jan 31, 2027

Congress and legislation: forecasts and odds

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