Question 1

Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?

Accepted Answer

As of September 26, 2026, Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan is the most likely next UN Secretary-General at 45 percent. She topped the Security Council's third straw poll with nine encourage votes, the minimum needed, but five members discouraged her and diplomats suspect two of those were veto holders China and Russia.

Question 2

Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?

Accepted Answer

As of September 26, 2026, Chuck Schumer is narrowly the most likely Senate Majority Leader in January 2027, at 40 percent, just ahead of John Thune at 39. Who leads depends mostly on which party wins the Senate, which our desk puts at 58 percent Democratic, and on whether Democrats keep Schumer despite growing opposition.

Question 3

Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?

Accepted Answer

As of September 26, 2026, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has an 84 percent chance of being elected Speaker when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats, and a Democratic majority would almost certainly elect its leader; Speaker Mike Johnson's path requires Republicans to hold the House.

Question 4

Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?

Accepted Answer

As of September 26, 2026, Christopher Luxon is the slight favourite to be New Zealand's prime minister after the November 7 election, at 50 percent to Chris Hipkins's 42. The main reason is arithmetic: Labour has ruled out NZ First, so Hipkins needs four parties to govern, while Luxon's current coalition has more paths to 61 seats.

Question 5

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

Accepted Answer

As of September 26, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the most likely winner of France's 2027 presidential election at 42 percent. She polls 33 to 36 percent in the first round and leads every tested runoff, but her 55 to 45 edge over Edouard Philippe is narrow, and French far-right candidates have lost all three runoffs they reached.

Question 6

Who will be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027?

Accepted Answer

As of September 26, 2026, Andy Burnham is 93 percent likely to still be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027. He took office on July 20 with nominations from 94 percent of Labour MPs, leads rivals as best prime minister by 22 points, and no general election is due before 2029.

Question 7

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Accepted Answer

As of September 26, 2026, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the narrow favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination at 17 percent, but the field is wide open: candidates outside our top seven total 27 percent. Harris leads polls, yet Newsom says he will not run if she does, making her decision the biggest swing factor.

Question 8

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Accepted Answer

As of September 26, 2026, we give Vice President JD Vance a 55 percent chance of winning the 2028 Republican nomination. He leads the national primary averages, holds the party's money machine as RNC finance chair, and his most plausible rival, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, says he has no plans to run and would back him.

Who will win?