Question 1

Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?

Accepted Answer

As of October 15, Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan is still the most likely next UN Secretary-General, but we cut her to 40 percent from 46. Politico reported the U.S. opposes all seven declared candidates and wants new ones, and PassBlue's sources say one of her six discourage votes on October 7 was American, a day before the first veto-revealing ballot.

Question 2

Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?

Accepted Answer

As of October 15, 2026, Chuck Schumer is the most likely Senate Majority Leader in January 2027, at 48 percent, up from 46, ahead of John Thune at 32. Our Senate forecast gives Democrats a 66 percent chance of control, and Axios reports Schumer is more than favored to win the caucus secret ballot.

Question 3

Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?

Accepted Answer

As of October 15, 2026, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has an 87 percent chance of being elected Speaker in January 2027, up from 86. Our House forecast now gives Democrats 92 percent after Republican groups began abandoning endangered seats, and a new majority almost always elects its leader; Mike Johnson needs a Republican hold.

Question 4

Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?

Accepted Answer

As of October 15, 2026, Chris Hipkins is the narrowest of favourites to be New Zealand's next prime minister at 48 percent, with Christopher Luxon at 45. The newest 1News-Verian poll has Opportunity at 8 percent and holding the balance of power, and Luxon has ruled out working with it, but Curia had Opportunity under the threshold.

Question 5

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

Accepted Answer

As of October 15, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the most likely winner of France's 2027 presidential election at 46 percent, up from 42. She polls 35 to 37 percent in the first round, leads Edouard Philippe 56 to 44 in Toluna Harris, and Jean-Luc Melenchon, whom she beats by about two to one, now often finishes second.

Question 6

Who will be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027?

Accepted Answer

As of October 15, 2026, Andy Burnham is 90 percent likely to still be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027, down from 93. His party mandate is overwhelming and no election is due, but long-dated gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 two weeks before his first Budget, and Labour leads YouGov by one point.

Question 7

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Accepted Answer

No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: California Gov. Gavin Newsom stays the narrow favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination at 17 percent, with candidates outside our top seven at 27. Harris still has not decided, and Newsom says he will not run if she does, so her decision remains the biggest swing factor.

Question 8

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Accepted Answer

No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: we hold Vice President JD Vance at 55 percent to win the 2028 Republican nomination. He still leads national primary averages and runs the party's money operation as RNC finance chair, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has not moved off his statement that he has no plans to run.

Who will win?