Colorado · U.S. House · District 7 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Tim Bennett.

Pettersen starts 15.0 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 11,863 net votes toward Bennett, a 3.2-point gain. Winning outright would take a 11.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Bennett the one standing if one comes.

55,579

net votes between Bennett and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 2.

15.0 pts

Pettersen lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Colorado races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 11.8-point national wave.

Odds today2%

Odds with the plan5%

Net votes to find55,579

WherePrecinct 7046022008 (Fremont County), Precinct 7046022006 (Fremont County), Precinct 7046022015 (Fremont County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Pettersen +15.0. Tim Bennett needs 55,579 net votes. Odds 2% today, 5% with the plan.

The number

185,665 votes.

That is half of the 371,328 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Bennett stands today, and what is missing:

152,465 Tim Bennett baseline

208,044 Brittany Pettersen baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

2% today. 5% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Bennett wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Bennett short by 43,343.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

9,121

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 9,121

Who. 9,121 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Pettersen today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Bennett needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Pettersen.

Mobilize

1,159

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 11,085

Who. At least 11,085 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Bennett's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

1,583

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,524

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Bennett's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,863 net votes against a gap of 55,579. Still 43,716 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 11.8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 9% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 7046022008 (Fremont County)mobilize
Starting line Bennett +36. 5.7% split their ticket. About 718 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+113
02
Precinct 7046022006 (Fremont County)mobilize
Starting line Bennett +36. 4.0% split their ticket. About 673 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+98
03
Precinct 7046022015 (Fremont County)mobilize
Starting line Bennett +34. 5.3% split their ticket. About 672 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+98
04
Precinct 7046022010 (Fremont County)mobilize
Starting line Bennett +35. 5.4% split their ticket. About 517 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+98
05
Precinct 7046022016 (Fremont County)mobilize
Starting line Bennett +34. 4.2% split their ticket. About 622 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+93
06
Precinct 7046022004 (Fremont County)mobilize
Starting line Bennett +30. 7.0% split their ticket. About 507 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+89
07
Precinct 7046060007 (Teller County)mobilize
Starting line Bennett +38. 4.3% split their ticket. About 340 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+84
08
Precinct 7046022018 (Fremont County)mobilize
Starting line Bennett +38. 5.8% split their ticket. About 362 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+82
09
Precinct 7042530048 (Jefferson County)persuade
Starting line Bennett +3. 10.2% split their ticket.
+81
10
Precinct 7202530149 (Jefferson County)persuade
Starting line Pettersen +14. 11.0% split their ticket.
+80
11
Precinct 7046022007 (Fremont County)persuade
Starting line Bennett +36. 6.5% split their ticket. About 180 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+80
12
Precinct 7192430078 (Jefferson County)persuade
Starting line Pettersen +11. 9.6% split their ticket.
+75

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 7046022008 (Fremont County) carries the most.

Precinct 7046022008 (Fremont County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 113. It sits at Bennett +36 on our starting line, and 5.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 7046022006 (Fremont County) is a turnout race.

Bennett's side leads Precinct 7046022006 (Fremont County) by about 36 points on our starting line, and it cast about 673 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 77 votes there.

Precinct 7202530149 (Jefferson County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 7202530149 (Jefferson County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 11.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Pettersen had $1.11 million in cash on hand to Bennett's $1,325. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Bennett's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 394
Slope: 0.985
R²: 0.976
Residual SD: 3.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 68

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Bennett's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 2.

Now to October 1
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Bennett, with Pettersen, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 2 to 11
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 9,121 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 12 to 25
Bank the ballots
Every active Colorado voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 11,085 of them live where Bennett is favored. Ballots must be received by the county clerk by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. After October 26, return ballots to a drop box or voting center rather than by mail.
November 3
Election day
Voter service and polling centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day. Colorado offers same-day registration through 7 p.m. on Election Day, with ID. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 14.2 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 15.0 points; Bennet carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 16.7 points.

Bennett wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Pettersen.
In Precinct 7046022008 (Fremont County) and Precinct 7046022006 (Fremont County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 11.8 points toward Bennett's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,672 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 70,070 dials to 23,357 households, before the last ballot is cast.

23K

households on the target list

70K

dials across three attempts

3,672

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,100 at our published rates: 23,357 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Tim Bennett (R)

A retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel with nearly 30 years of service who was elected to the Lewis-Palmer School District 38 Board of Education in 2025 and has lived in Monument since 1973 (CPR News; campaign site).

Cash on hand $1,325 and $63,306 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Brittany Pettersen (D)

U.S. representative since 2023; she served in the Colorado House of Representatives (2013 to 2019) and the Colorado Senate (2019 to 2023). A Jefferson County native, she holds a BA in political science from Metropolitan State University of Denver.

Cash on hand $1,105,388 and $1,866,765 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Susan Hall (U)

A Denver-born teacher who graduated from Lincoln High School and Metropolitan State University of Denver (2003) (Ballotpedia; CPR News).

Also on the ballot

Lawrence Kyle Clark (AC)

A Colorado Springs entrepreneur born in Morristown, New Jersey (CPR News; Ballotpedia).

Also on the ballot

Dan "Kilo" Sallis (L)

A Jefferson County small business owner running as a Libertarian (CPR News; Libertarian Party of Colorado).

Campaign site ›

Also on the ballot

Joe Krzeczkowski (U)

A Lakewood technology executive who leads global engineering teams, was raised on a family farm near Ann Arbor, Michigan, and moved to Colorado in 2012; he led a Lakewood community council (Ballotpedia survey; CPR News).

Cash on hand $916 and $3,531 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Pettersen +15.0. Tim Bennett needs 55,579 net votes. Odds 2% today, 5% with the plan.

Questions

Can Tim Bennett win Colorado's 7th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 11,863 net votes; the gap is 55,579. The rest would take a 11.8-point national shift.

Where are the votes Tim Bennett needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 7046022008 (Fremont County), Precinct 7046022006 (Fremont County), Precinct 7046022015 (Fremont County), Precinct 7046022010 (Fremont County), Precinct 7046022016 (Fremont County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Tim Bennett need to persuade?

About 4,560 voters who lean Brittany Pettersen today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 9,121 persuadable voters leaning Brittany Pettersen.

When does early voting start in Colorado in 2026?

Colorado votes by mail: every active voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, 2026, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Register by October 26 to be mailed a ballot; same-day registration continues through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Colorado Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.