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Every change on the ledger, newest first. Old versions are never edited; each update is a new locked version with its own evidence cutoff. Last change October 15, 2026. Follow by RSS.
· Resolved NO
10%
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
Gas fell into Election Day instead of rising: the EIA weekly U.S. regular retail average for November 2, 2026 was $4.153, and AAA's national average was $4.17 on November 1 and $4.10 on November 5, all well under $4.50.
· Resolved YES
54%
Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
NBC News projected James Talarico the winner over Ken Paxton, 55.1 percent to 43.0 percent with 99 percent of the expected vote in.
· Resolved NO
42%
Will Susan Collins win reelection in the 2026 Maine Senate race against Troy Jackson?
NBC News projected Collins lost her seat, 46.7 percent to 53.3 percent for the Democratic nominee, before any ranked-choice tabulation was needed.
· Resolved NO
34%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio governor's race?
NBC News projected Amy Acton the winner over Vivek Ramaswamy, 52.3 percent to 44.4 percent.
· Resolved YES
92%
Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?
NBC News projected Democratic control of the House on election night, with its Decision Desk estimating about 259 Democratic seats to 176 Republican once every race is called.
· Resolved NO
34%
Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
Democrats won the Senate: NBC News projected Democratic control with 54 seats to 44, a net gain of 7, with Mississippi and Alaska still uncalled.
· Down 6 points
46%40%Rebeca Grynspan
Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?
As of October 15, Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan is still the most likely next UN Secretary-General, but we cut her to 40 percent from 46. Politico reported the U.S. opposes all seven declared candidates and wants new ones, and PassBlue's sources say one of her six discourage votes on October 7 was American, a day before the first veto-revealing ballot.
· Up 4 points
42%46%Marine Le Pen
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
As of October 15, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the most likely winner of France's 2027 presidential election at 46 percent, up from 42. She polls 35 to 37 percent in the first round, leads Edouard Philippe 56 to 44 in Toluna Harris, and Jean-Luc Melenchon, whom she beats by about two to one, now often finishes second.
· Down 3 points
93%90%Andy Burnham
Who will be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027?
As of October 15, 2026, Andy Burnham is 90 percent likely to still be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027, down from 93. His party mandate is overwhelming and no election is due, but long-dated gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 two weeks before his first Budget, and Labour leads YouGov by one point.
· Lead changes from Christopher Luxon
47%48%Chris Hipkins
Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?
As of October 15, 2026, Chris Hipkins is the narrowest of favourites to be New Zealand's next prime minister at 48 percent, with Christopher Luxon at 45. The newest 1News-Verian poll has Opportunity at 8 percent and holding the balance of power, and Luxon has ruled out working with it, but Curia had Opportunity under the threshold.
· Up 7 points
48%55%
Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027?
As of October 15 we give Netanyahu a 55 percent chance of being Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027, up from 48. Polls put his bloc level with the Zionist opposition at about 52 seats each, short of 61, and Bennett says he will not rely on Arab parties, so a deadlock that keeps him as caretaker is likelier.
· New forecast
42%
Will Susan Collins win reelection in the 2026 Maine Senate race against Troy Jackson?
As of October 15, 2026, we give Sen. Susan Collins a 42 percent chance of winning a sixth term. Troy Jackson leads most recent polls by two to five points, but Collins won by nearly 9 in 2020 after trailing in polls for most of that cycle, so her record keeps this a genuine Toss Up.
· Down 3 points
37%34%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio governor's race?
As of October 15, 2026, we give Republican Vivek Ramaswamy a 34 percent chance of winning Ohio's governor race, down from 37. Correcting our poll average to include Marist's late September survey, Amy Acton leads five recent polls by an average of five points, and early in-person voting is running at nearly four times its 2022 pace.
· Up 2 points
46%48%Chuck Schumer
Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
As of October 15, 2026, Chuck Schumer is the most likely Senate Majority Leader in January 2027, at 48 percent, up from 46, ahead of John Thune at 32. Our Senate forecast gives Democrats a 66 percent chance of control, and Axios reports Schumer is more than favored to win the caucus secret ballot.
· New forecast
75%
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its December 8-9, 2026 meeting?
We put the chance the Fed raises rates at its December 8-9, 2026 meeting at 75%, as of October 15, below Kalshi's 81% and CME FedWatch's roughly 90%. Hot September inflation keeps one more hike on track, but if the Fed hikes on October 28, a second straight hike in December is far from certain.
· Up 1 points
33%34%
Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
As of October 15, 2026, we give Republicans a 34 percent chance of keeping the Senate, up from 33. Texas tightened, with our Talarico forecast down to 54 percent, and Iowa is a true Toss Up rather than a Democratic lean, while Roy Cooper leads by 14 in North Carolina and Troy Jackson still leads narrowly in Maine.
· Down 5 points
59%54%
Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
As of October 15, 2026, we give Democrat James Talarico a 54 percent chance of beating Republican Ken Paxton, down from 59. Four polls released this week show the race tightening, from a tie to a four-point Talarico lead, and the UT/Texas Politics Project poll finds 92 percent of Republican likely voters now back Paxton.
· Up 3 points
12%15%
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
We give Lula a 15 percent chance of winning Brazil's October 25 runoff as of October 15, 2026, up from 12. Flavio Bolsonaro still leads every runoff poll, but the two newest, PoderData and Quaest, cut his valid-vote edge to about 51 to 49, inside the margin of error, ten days before the vote.
· Up 1 points
86%87%Hakeem Jeffries
Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
As of October 15, 2026, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has an 87 percent chance of being elected Speaker in January 2027, up from 86. Our House forecast now gives Democrats 92 percent after Republican groups began abandoning endangered seats, and a new majority almost always elects its leader; Mike Johnson needs a Republican hold.
· Down 4 points
14%10%
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
We now put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 10%, down from 14%, as of October 15. AAA put the average at $4.3344 on October 15, about 17 cents below the line with under three weeks left, and crude has stayed inside its recent range despite new attacks on shipping.
· Up 1 points
91%92%
Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?
As of October 15, 2026, we put the chance that Democrats win the House at 92 percent, up from 91. Republican groups have begun abandoning endangered incumbents, and senior Republicans told Politico the House had all but slipped away. Much of that retreat reflects polling we had already priced, so the move is small; a polling miss is the main risk.
· Up 12 points
18%30%
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?
We now put the chance the Fed raises rates on October 28, 2026 at 30%, up from 18%, as of October 15. September CPI rose 3.7% over the year with core prices up 0.3% for the month, a tenth above forecasts, and producer prices jumped 1.3%. Officials still describe one more hike this year without naming a meeting, and markets favor December.
· Up 1 points
62%63%
Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?
We now estimate a 63 percent chance the U.S. or Israel strikes Iranian soil by December 31, 2026, up from 62 percent, as of October 15. Iran is attacking more ships to keep oil prices high before the midterms, and Trump promised "a number" on Iran, but he also says he promised Tehran restraint on its leaders.
· Down 50 points
68%18%
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?
We now put the chance the Fed raises rates on October 28, 2026 at 18%, down from 68%, as of October 12. The biggest reason: September payrolls rose only 29,000 and New York Fed President John Williams said there is no need for urgency. September CPI on October 14 is the last chance to revive an October hike.
· Down 19 points
33%14%
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
We now put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 14%, down from 33%, as of October 12. AAA put the average at $4.36 on October 8, and Trump pledged no strikes on Iran before the midterms, leaving a hurricane or supply disruption as the main path back up.
· Down 12 points
45%33%
Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?
We now put the chance that annual CPI inflation reads 4.0% or higher in the November 2026 report at 33%, down from 45%, as of October 12. The biggest reason: AAA put gasoline at $4.36 on October 8, down from $4.48 in late September, and Trump pledged no strikes on Iran before the midterms, removing the main oil shock path.
· Down 1 points
17%16%
Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?
We now estimate a 16 percent chance that a new five-year farm bill becomes law by December 31, 2026, as of October 12, down a point. The Senate bill has not reached the floor, no SNAP cost-shift compromise has been announced, and an expected Democratic House win lowers lame duck urgency, so another extension remains likeliest.
· Up 3 points
88%91%
Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?
As of October 12, 2026, we put the chance that Democrats win the House at 91 percent, up from 88. The Cook Political Report moved 18 House races toward Democrats in its October update, as Axios reported on October 9, tripping our signpost and pointing to a gain well past the three seats needed. Redrawn maps remain the main risk.
· Down 9 points
42%33%
Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
As of October 12, 2026, we give Republicans a 33 percent chance of keeping the Senate, down from 42. New York Times/Siena polls released October 3 showed Democrats ahead in Alaska, Texas and Ohio, later October polls kept Talarico and Brown ahead by four or more, and Maine polls mostly favor Troy Jackson.
· Up 6 points
40%46%Chuck Schumer
Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
As of October 12, 2026, Chuck Schumer is the most likely Senate Majority Leader in January 2027, at 46 percent, ahead of John Thune at 31. Our Senate forecast now gives Democrats a 67 percent chance of control after October polls showed them ahead in Alaska, Texas and Ohio, though Schumer still faces opposition from several Democratic nominees.
· Up 2 points
84%86%Hakeem Jeffries
Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
As of October 12, 2026, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has an 86 percent chance of being elected Speaker in January 2027, up from 84. Our House forecast now gives Democrats 91 percent after Cook moved 18 races their way, and a new majority almost always elects its leader; Mike Johnson needs a Republican hold.
· Lead changes from Christopher Luxon
50%47%Chris Hipkins
Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?
As of October 12, 2026, New Zealand's next prime minister is a coin flip: Christopher Luxon 47 percent, Chris Hipkins 46. The three newest major polls split two to one in favour of a left bloc majority, and the deciding factor is whether the Opportunity Party, polling at or just under 5 percent, clears the threshold on November 7.
· Down 34 points
46%12%
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
We give Lula a 12 percent chance of winning Brazil's presidency as of October 12, 2026. Flavio Bolsonaro finished first on October 4 with about 47 percent to Lula's 45 after final polls had Lula ahead, then won endorsements from the third, fifth and sixth place finishers and leads every published runoff poll since.
· Down 3 points
37%34%
Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?
We now give a 34 percent chance that the U.S. and Mexico conclude an interim USMCA agreement by December 31, 2026, down from 37, as of October 12. The fourth negotiating round, expected in September, slipped into October with no confirmed date, eating into a short window while the autos tariff dispute stays open.
· Rechecked, no material change
40%
Will the U.S. raise tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% by January 15, 2027?
No material change: we still put the chance that a 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian cars is in effect by January 15, 2027 at 40%, as of October 12, 2026. Talks remain frozen, but no proclamation setting the auto rate has appeared seven weeks after the threat, so the January 1 date is still a lever Washington can withdraw cheaply.
· Rechecked, no material change
17%Gavin Newsom
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: California Gov. Gavin Newsom stays the narrow favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination at 17 percent, with candidates outside our top seven at 27. Harris still has not decided, and Newsom says he will not run if she does, so her decision remains the biggest swing factor.
· Rechecked, no material change
55%JD Vance
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: we hold Vice President JD Vance at 55 percent to win the 2028 Republican nomination. He still leads national primary averages and runs the party's money operation as RNC finance chair, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has not moved off his statement that he has no plans to run.
· Down 6 points
68%62%
Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?
We now estimate a 62 percent chance the U.S. or Israel strikes Iranian soil by December 31, 2026, down from 68 percent, as of October 12. Trump pledged on October 8 not to attack Iran before the November 3 midterms, taking three weeks off the table, but the Pentagon has drafted strike options and the blockade continues.
· Rechecked, no material change
20%
Will a NATO member invoke Article 4 by June 30, 2027?
No material change: as of October 12 we still put the chance a NATO member formally invokes Article 4 by June 30, 2027 at 20 percent. Drone strikes sank ships off Romania and in Bulgaria's Black Sea economic zone on October 5 and 6, killing two sailors, yet neither government made a formal request.
· Rechecked, no material change
40%
Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
No material change: as of October 12 we still put the chance of a large, announced PLA exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027 at 40 percent. Beijing answered Lai's October 10 National Day speech with criticism, not a drill, and planned Trump and Xi meetings in November and December keep summitry in charge for now.
· Rechecked, no material change
48%
Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027?
No material change: as of October 12 we still give Netanyahu a 48 percent chance of being Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027. Polls before the October 27 election still leave his bloc short of a Knesset majority, and the opposition is short too without Arab parties, so a deadlock that keeps him as caretaker remains his likeliest path.
· Rechecked, no material change
74%
Will the Supreme Court rule that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles, striking down the Illinois and Connecticut bans, by July 3, 2027?
No material change: as of the October 12 cutoff we hold at 74% the chance that the Supreme Court rules by July 3, 2027 that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles. Argument is still set for December 2, four justices are on record against these bans, and Roberts and Barrett joined the June 2026 gun-rights majority.
· Up 3 points
72%75%
Will the Supreme Court rule by July 3, 2027 that Arizona can require documentary proof of citizenship from voters who register with the state form?
We now put the chance at 75%, up from 72%, that the Supreme Court rules by July 3, 2027 that Arizona may require documentary proof of citizenship from voters using its state form. As of the October 12 cutoff, this corrects our first version: the State of Arizona itself sought review, so a dismissal without a ruling is less likely.
· Down 2 points
17%15%
Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027?
We now put the chance of a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire taking effect by June 30, 2027 at 15 percent, down from 17, as of the October 12 cutoff. Time is running off the clock, Trump's October 11 energy ceasefire is a partial deal Moscow has not confirmed, and Ukraine reports Russian strikes on its grid continued.
· Up 1 points
45%46%Rebeca Grynspan
Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?
As of the October 12 cutoff, Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan remains the most likely next UN Secretary-General at 46 percent. She topped the October 7 straw poll, her fourth first place in five rounds, while rival Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett slipped to third. But her discourage votes doubled, and one permanent-member veto would still end her bid.
· Up 7 points
52%59%
Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
As of October 12, 2026, we give Democrat James Talarico a 59 percent chance of beating Republican Ken Paxton, up from 52. All three polls fielded since late September, including the New York Times and Siena, show Talarico ahead by two to six points, but Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
· Down 8 points
45%37%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio governor's race?
As of October 12, 2026, we give Republican Vivek Ramaswamy a 37 percent chance of winning Ohio's governor race, down from 45. Three of four polls released since late September put Democrat Amy Acton ahead, by four to nine points. Ohio's Republican lean keeps him close, but he now needs a polling miss.
· Up 1 points
80%81%
Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?
We put the chance the U.S.-China trade truce is extended past January 10, 2027, or replaced by a broader deal, at 81%, up from 80%, as of October 12, 2026. Both sides still hold choke points neither can afford to trigger, and the Board of Trade tariff lists released September 27 add a modest sign the process continues.
· Up 1 points
6%7%
Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?
We now put the chance the CLARITY Act becomes law by December 31, 2026 at 7 percent, up 1 point after tightening our reference class, as of our October 12 cutoff. The Senate's September 15 vote was effectively 50 to 49 once a procedural switch is counted, still 10 short of 60, and no ethics deal has surfaced.
· Rechecked, no material change
75%
Will the FY2027 defense bill (NDAA) become law by December 31, 2026?
No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: we still estimate a 75 percent chance the FY2027 defense authorization bill becomes law by December 31, 2026. The Senate has not revisited its failed July vote and Congress is away until after the election, so the outcome still rests on a compressed December lame duck.
· Up 3 points
24%27%
Will the U.S. government shut down in December 2026, when the current stopgap expires?
We now put the chance of a federal shutdown starting between December 12 and December 31, 2026 at 27 percent, up from 24, as of our October 12 cutoff. Traders have priced more risk and our window is wider than theirs, but another cheap short stopgap into 2027 remains the likeliest exit when Congress returns.
· Rechecked, no material change
8%
Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?
No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: we hold at 8% that President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2027. In a TIME interview published October 1 he again declined to rule it out, but that is one more threat without action, and the Pentagon told a senator in writing it plans no troops at polls.
· Resolved YES
62%
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?
On September 29, 2026 the full Supreme Court granted the government's application in DHS v. D.V.D. and stayed the district court ruling, letting third-country deportations resume; Justices Sotomayor, Kagan and Jackson would have denied the stay, and the case is set for argument in the new term.
· Resolved YES
36%
Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026?
China's Foreign Ministry list of eight deliverables from Xi's state visit, published September 26, 2026, states that China and the U.S. also agree to establish a bilateral communication channel for AI incidents, and the White House described the same agreed channel; what we got wrong: our 36 percent was published hours before that release, and we read Beijing's silence as reluctance when it was timing.
· New forecast
40%Chuck Schumer
Who will be Senate Majority Leader when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
As of September 26, 2026, Chuck Schumer is narrowly the most likely Senate Majority Leader in January 2027, at 40 percent, just ahead of John Thune at 39. Who leads depends mostly on which party wins the Senate, which our desk puts at 58 percent Democratic, and on whether Democrats keep Schumer despite growing opposition.
· New forecast
84%Hakeem Jeffries
Who will be Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027?
As of September 26, 2026, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has an 84 percent chance of being elected Speaker when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats, and a Democratic majority would almost certainly elect its leader; Speaker Mike Johnson's path requires Republicans to hold the House.
· New forecast
17%Gavin Newsom
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
As of September 26, 2026, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the narrow favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination at 17 percent, but the field is wide open: candidates outside our top seven total 27 percent. Harris leads polls, yet Newsom says he will not run if she does, making her decision the biggest swing factor.
· New forecast
55%JD Vance
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
As of September 26, 2026, we give Vice President JD Vance a 55 percent chance of winning the 2028 Republican nomination. He leads the national primary averages, holds the party's money machine as RNC finance chair, and his most plausible rival, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, says he has no plans to run and would back him.
· New forecast
45%Rebeca Grynspan
Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?
As of September 26, 2026, Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan is the most likely next UN Secretary-General at 45 percent. She topped the Security Council's third straw poll with nine encourage votes, the minimum needed, but five members discouraged her and diplomats suspect two of those were veto holders China and Russia.
· New forecast
50%Chris Hipkins
Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?
As of September 26, 2026, Christopher Luxon is the slight favourite to be New Zealand's prime minister after the November 7 election, at 50 percent to Chris Hipkins's 42. The main reason is arithmetic: Labour has ruled out NZ First, so Hipkins needs four parties to govern, while Luxon's current coalition has more paths to 61 seats.
· New forecast
42%Marine Le Pen
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
As of September 26, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the most likely winner of France's 2027 presidential election at 42 percent. She polls 33 to 36 percent in the first round and leads every tested runoff, but her 55 to 45 edge over Edouard Philippe is narrow, and French far-right candidates have lost all three runoffs they reached.
· New forecast
93%Andy Burnham
Who will be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027?
As of September 26, 2026, Andy Burnham is 93 percent likely to still be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027. He took office on July 20 with nominations from 94 percent of Labour MPs, leads rivals as best prime minister by 22 points, and no general election is due before 2029.
· New forecast
68%
Will the Fed raise interest rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting?
We put the chance the Fed raises rates on October 28, 2026 at 68%, as of September 26. The biggest reason: 16 of 18 officials project another hike this year and a voting governor says more is needed. We sit below the 77.5% futures price because the same hike could come in December, after the midterms.
· New forecast
62%
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?
We put the chance at 62% that the Supreme Court grants the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026. The biggest reason: the same Court stayed an earlier version of this order 6-3 in June 2025, and the government has won most of its immigration emergency requests.
· New forecast
33%
Will gas prices be above $4.50 a gallon on Election Day 2026?
We put the chance the national average for regular gas is above $4.50 on Election Day, November 3, 2026, at 33%, as of September 26. Gas sits at $4.49 and Trump rejected Iran's plan to reopen Hormuz, but in 25 of the last 36 years pump prices fell between late September and early November.
· New forecast
45%
Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?
We put the chance that annual CPI inflation reads 4.0% or higher in the November 2026 report, due December 10, at 45%, as of September 26. Gasoline near $4.49 and a rejected Iran peace plan push toward 4%, but core inflation is only 2.4% and fall gas prices usually ease, leaving this a near coin flip.
· New forecast
17%
Will a new five-year farm bill become law by December 31, 2026?
We estimate a 17 percent chance that a new five-year farm bill becomes law by December 31, 2026. The biggest obstacle is the Senate: the bill cleared committee on a 12 to 11 party-line vote, and it needs at least seven Democrats to reach 60 votes while the parties remain split over SNAP cost shifts to states.
· New forecast
52%
Will Democrat James Talarico defeat Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race?
As of September 26, 2026, we give Democrat James Talarico a 52 percent chance of beating Republican Ken Paxton for the Texas Senate seat. Recent polls are within one point and Paxton is winning only 84 percent of Republicans, but Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988 and Democrats have trailed their polls there before.
· New forecast
6%
Will the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill become law in 2026?
We put the chance the CLARITY Act becomes law by December 31, 2026 at 6 percent. The Senate's September 15 attempt to start debate failed 49 to 50, short of even a majority, with every Democrat and three Republicans opposed. Reviving it needs at least 10 more votes during a crowded post-election lame duck.
· New forecast
75%
Will the FY2027 defense bill (NDAA) become law by December 31, 2026?
We estimate a 75 percent chance the FY2027 defense authorization bill becomes law by December 31, 2026. The main reason: Congress has enacted an NDAA 65 years in a row, usually in December. The main risk: Senate Democrats blocked it 50 to 46 in July over the Iran war, and it has not moved since.
· New forecast
24%
Will the U.S. government shut down in December 2026, when the current stopgap expires?
We put the odds of a federal government shutdown starting between December 12 and December 31, 2026 at 24 percent. Funding runs out December 11, after the midterms. The biggest reason it probably holds: another short stopgap into 2027 is cheap for both parties, and this Congress just passed one 370 to 48.
· New forecast
8%
Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?
We put the chance at 8% that President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027. The biggest reason: he has threatened to use it at least four times since 2020 without once following through, and his administration keeps building workarounds rather than taking that step.
· New forecast
45%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio governor's race?
As of September 26, 2026, we give Republican Vivek Ramaswamy a 45 percent chance of winning Ohio's governor race. Ohio has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006, but Democrat Amy Acton leads the RealClear Polling average 47.5 to 46.5 and is better liked, in a national environment running about eight points toward Democrats.
· New forecast
88%
Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections?
As of September 26, 2026, we put the chance that Democrats win the House at 88 percent. They need a net gain of only three seats, lead the generic ballot by about eight points, and face a president near 33 percent approval. New Republican-drawn maps are the main reason this is not higher.
· New forecast
42%
Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?
As of September 26, 2026, we give Republicans a 42 percent chance of keeping the Senate. They hold 53 seats, so Democrats must net four, but a roughly eight point Democratic national environment has put Republican seats in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska and Texas at real risk, while Democrats look safe in Georgia.
· New forecast
40%
Will the U.S. raise tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% by January 15, 2027?
We put the chance that a 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian cars is in effect by January 15, 2027 at 40%, as of September 26, 2026. Trump has carried out most of his dated tariff threats against Canada, but auto tariffs have repeatedly been softened, and a deal that would have cut the rate to 15% came close in August.
· New forecast
74%
Will the Supreme Court rule that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles, striking down the Illinois and Connecticut bans, by July 3, 2027?
We put the chance at 74% that the Supreme Court rules by July 3, 2027 that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles, striking down the Illinois and Connecticut bans. The biggest reason: four justices are already on record against these bans, and Roberts and Barrett joined the gun-rights majority in the Court's last Second Amendment case in June 2026.
· New forecast
72%
Will the Supreme Court rule by July 3, 2027 that Arizona can require documentary proof of citizenship from voters who register with the state form?
We put the chance at 72% that the Supreme Court rules by July 3, 2027 that Arizona may require documentary proof of citizenship from voters using its state registration form. The biggest reason: five justices already let Arizona enforce that exact requirement in an August 2024 emergency order, and the Court took the case to review a ruling against it.
· New forecast
36%
Will the U.S. and China agree to an AI incident hotline by the end of 2026?
We put the chance that the U.S. and China formally agree to an AI incident hotline by December 31, 2026 at 36 percent, as of September 26. Washington proposed it before the Washington summit, but Beijing's readouts endorsed only continued AI dialogue, and U.S.-China crisis channels usually take far longer than three months to agree.
· New forecast
68%
Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?
We estimate a 68 percent chance the U.S. or Israel strikes Iranian soil again by December 31, 2026. The U.S. has not struck Iran ashore since early September and talks restarted, but the blockade, the closed strait and Trump's reported rejection of Iran's ceasefire plan leave the triggers for renewed strikes in place.
· New forecast
37%
Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?
We give a 37 percent chance that the U.S. and Mexico conclude an interim USMCA agreement by December 31, 2026, as of September 26. The list of U.S. demands has shrunk from 54 to 14, but Washington's demand for 50 percent U.S. content in cars remains unresolved, and every earlier Mexico deal deadline passed without a deal.
· New forecast
80%
Will the U.S.-China trade truce be extended past January 10, 2027?
We put the chance the U.S.-China trade truce is extended past January 10, 2027, or replaced by a broader deal, at 80%, as of September 26, 2026. Both sides have extended every formal truce deadline since 2018 because each holds a choke point the other cannot afford to trigger: Chinese rare earths against American chips and farm purchases.
· New forecast
20%
Will a NATO member invoke Article 4 by June 30, 2027?
We estimate a 20 percent chance a NATO member formally invokes Article 4 by June 30, 2027. Russian incursions are more frequent than ever, including a September 23 helicopter crossing into Poland, but no ally has requested Article 4 since September 2025, even after a Russian cruise missile landed 100 kilometres inside Poland.
· New forecast
40%
Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
We put the chance of a large, announced PLA exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027 at 40 percent. Beijing held seven such drills from 2022 to 2025 but none in 2026, as Xi courts Trump through summits and a trade truce. A released U.S. arms package or a Lai speech could end the pause quickly.
· New forecast
17%
Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027?
We put the chance of a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire taking effect by June 30, 2027 at 17 percent. Washington is reviving trilateral talks, but the Kremlin has rejected even a limited energy ceasefire and still demands Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas. Short truces in 2026 lasted three days or less.
· New forecast
46%
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
We give Lula a 46 percent chance of winning Brazil's presidency as of September 26, 2026. Runoff polls show a statistical tie with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, and the biggest reason we sit just under even is history: in 2022 the final polls overstated Lula's runoff margin by about two points while his government's approval is now underwater.
· New forecast
48%
Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027?
We give Netanyahu a 48 percent chance of still being Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027, as of September 26, 2026. His bloc polls about 49 to 54 seats, short of 61, but the opposition is also short without Arab parties. A deadlock would leave him as caretaker, which is why this is near a coin flip.