California · U.S. House · District 18 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Shane Lewis.

Lofgren starts 28.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 1,534 net votes toward Lewis, a 1.0-point gain. Winning outright would take a 27.9-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Lewis the one standing if one comes.

45,623

net votes between Lewis and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 5.

28.9 pts

Lofgren lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All California races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 27.9-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find45,623

WhereSan Jose, Morgan Hill, Salinas

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Lofgren +28.9. Shane Lewis needs 45,623 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

79,034 votes.

That is half of the 158,066 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Lewis stands today, and what is missing:

55,228 Shane Lewis baseline

100,851 Zoe Lofgren baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Lewis wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Lewis short by 43,864.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

1,219

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,219

Who. 1,219 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lofgren today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Lewis needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Lofgren.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,193

Who. At least 1,193 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Lewis's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

241

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 690

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Lewis's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 1,534 net votes against a gap of 45,623. Still 44,089 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 27.9 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 94% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
San Josepersuade
Starting line Lofgren +48. 1.1% split their ticket.
+258
02
Morgan Hillpersuade
Starting line Lofgren +23. 2.1% split their ticket.
+204
03
Salinaspersuade
Starting line Lofgren +29. 1.1% split their ticket.
+176
04
Hollisterpersuade
Starting line Lofgren +20. 2.6% split their ticket.
+160
05
Gilroypersuade
Starting line Lofgren +26. 1.5% split their ticket.
+143
06
Coalingamobilize
Starting line Lewis +19. 2.2% split their ticket. About 1,186 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+107
07
Unincorporated San Benito Countypersuade
Starting line Lewis +5. 1.9% split their ticket.
+91
08
Unincorporated Monterey Countypersuade
Starting line Lofgren +7. 1.4% split their ticket.
+76
09
Watsonvillepersuade
Starting line Lofgren +47. 1.4% split their ticket.
+75
10
Unincorporated Santa Clara Countypersuade
Starting line Lofgren +18. 0.7% split their ticket.
+58
11
Soledadpersuade
Starting line Lofgren +32. 3.7% split their ticket.
+55
12
Unincorporated Santa Cruz Countypersuade
Starting line Lofgren +36. 1.9% split their ticket.
+39

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

San Jose carries the most.

San Jose gives this plan more net votes than any other place: 258. It sits at Lofgren +48 on our starting line, and 1.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Coalinga is a turnout race.

Lewis's side leads Coalinga by about 19 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,186 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 73 votes there.

Soledad splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and unincorporated areas in this plan, Soledad has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Lofgren had $643K in cash on hand to Lewis's $3,307. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Lewis's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 431
Slope: 1.020
R²: 0.965
Residual SD: 3.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 81

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Lewis's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 5.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and unincorporated areas. Every conversation tags the voter: with Lewis, with Lofgren, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,219 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
California mails a ballot to every active registered voter starting October 5. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, and conditional voter registration is open through Election Day. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 1,193 of them live where Lewis is favored. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10.
November 3
Election day
Polls and vote centers are open until 8 p.m. California allows conditional voter registration through Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 28.4 points; Schiff carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 28.3 points; Newsom carried the 2022 governor's race by 29.0 points.

Lewis wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lofgren.
In Coalinga, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 27.9 points toward Lewis's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

469 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 8,943 dials to 2,981 households, before the last ballot is cast.

2,981

households on the target list

8,943

dials across three attempts

469

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $1,701 at our published rates: 2,981 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Shane Lewis (R)

U.S. Marine Corps veteran who earned two meritorious promotions and qualified as a paratrooper, now an R&D electrical test engineer for a medical device company. He has served as a worship leader and elder at a San Jose church and ran a music instruction business.

Cash on hand $3,307 and $60,180 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Zoe Lofgren (D)

U.S. Representative since 1995 who previously served on the Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors and worked as an immigration attorney, and who chaired the House Administration Committee in the 116th and 117th Congresses. She holds a BA from Stanford and a JD from Santa Clara University.

Cash on hand $643,341 and $1,721,916 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Lofgren +28.9. Shane Lewis needs 45,623 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Shane Lewis win California's 18th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 1,534 net votes; the gap is 45,623. The rest would take a 27.9-point national shift.

Where are the votes Shane Lewis needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: San Jose, Morgan Hill, Salinas, Hollister, Gilroy. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Shane Lewis need to persuade?

About 610 voters who lean Zoe Lofgren today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,219 persuadable voters leaning Zoe Lofgren.

When does early voting start in California in 2026?

California mails every active registered voter a ballot starting October 5, 2026. Ballots postmarked by November 3 count if they arrive by November 10, vote centers open before Election Day, and conditional voter registration is available through Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official California Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.